Yemen, The Road to Total Disorder (3)

Yemen, The Road to Total Disorder (3)

 Coalition Government:

Government is divided between the ex- opposition parties and President Saleh’s Party the (PGC).  Money, media, and security is taken by the ex-opposition.  The PGC is controlling the foreign affairs and part of the military ( part of the military – leaded by General Ali Mohsen- have defected since March 2012 and is not under the control of the President since then).

Over the past six months the priority of the government has been to secure funds to overcome the fears of collapse of the economy.  They have been successful and the foreign support has improved the economic condition, or at least stopped further deterioration.

In other areas the government has not been able to achieve much.  Electricity supply is still not stable and electricity is on less than 50% of the time.  Other services have either deteriorated or have not witnessed any progress, including trash collection and water supply.

Fuel supplies have improved in the past few weeks.  The government decided to reduce the price of Gasoline and add the cost to Diesel, the main fuel for the poorer farmers.  The government seems to be concerned about pleasing the more influential urban population.

Security wise the situation has further deteriorated.  Gunmen are running around the cities, robberies are common, and the feeling of security is diminishing especially after the tragic killing of security personnel in Sabeen Square.  The split of power is giving a sense of uncertainty and the recent crimes that go un-noticed by authorities further increase uncertainty.

The situation in Taiz has improved after the appointment of the new governor, but other areas of the country are experiencing more difficulties including Aden, Abyan, Lahej, Hajjah, and Al-Baydha.  Most of the main roads around the country are not accessible or at least not secure.

 The government media is controlled by the ex-opposition parties who were able to shift its focus in the past few months.  The need for “justice” and redistribution of resources is the main theme, and criticizing the “previous” regime is used to keep people under control.

Military and the Power Struggle:

Up to March 2012, President Saleh was keeping control of the military and security in the country with the exception of the defected First Armored Division lead by Ali Mohsen, and the areas controlled by Al-Hothi in the north.  There were of course a number of “hot” spots, but they were not affecting the overall situation.

Exactly one year from now President Saleh and country top leaders survived an attempted murder.  At that point, it is believed that Saleh was in a position to retaliate and hit his opponents.  Many believed that he continued to “rule” the country for more than three months from the hospital in Saudi Arabia.  He decided not to use force.  At that point the defected military division was too weak to survive any attack.  All other security arms of the regime were still active including intelligence agencies.

Saleh is “officially” out of the game, but the picture is more ambiguous.  In order to satisfy the ex-opposition parties President Hadi decided to replace a number of the military leaders who are related to President Saleh.  The recent attack on the security personnel in Al-Sabeen Square, during the preparation of the celebrations of the National Day, in a space that is under the control of the President’s Guards, puts a lot of questions about the wisdom of Hadi’s decisions.

The ex-opposition parties are counting on the defected military division, which now holds some increasing “legitimacy”.  They also count on the Minister of Interior, who directs security forces, although one of Saleh’s relatives still holds the main position in the security forces.

The Republican Guards (RG), led by President Saleh’s sun, are still the main force in the military.  The RG were not directly involved in the political conflict, except when they were attacked by pro Islah (Islamist Party) supporters in their attempt to control Sana’a Airport.  The ex-opposition parties believe that Saleh’s sun should leave his post.

Away from military we find a number of other players.  In the north Al-Houthi (a Shite group) is controlling Sadd’a Governorate and parts of Al-Jawf.  In the south, Al-Qaeda supporters are controlling parts of Abyan, receiving support from those who sympathize with their ideology in Yemen and outside, including Somalia.

Tribes have big influence on the game in Yemen.  Currently they are split.  Many tribe leaders are still loyal to the PGC and continue to support it.  Others had detached themselves from Saleh’s party, and followed the “ex-opposition” parties, mainly the Islamist party.  Most tribe leaders have developed strong connections to economic opportunities in urban areas, and thus could easily switch sides.  Their influence is almost neutral because they are not expected to take part in any military conflict.   

Tribes related to Sheikh Al-Ahmar Sons, however, have taken, and are ready to take part in military conflict.  They are believed to be driven by temporary benefits and they are expected to continue their support as long as finances keep flowing.

Yemen, The Road to Total Disorder (2)

Yemen, The Road to Total Disorder (2)

Rape:

Three weeks ago the media overlooked one of the most tragic incidents, I claim, in the history of Yemen.  A tragic crime that shows how the values and culture of Yemen have negatively been affected, especially over the past year or so.  A 13-year old girl sent by her family to buy bread in Aser Zone (less than 200 meters from the residence of President Hadi) was taken and raped by 7 youngsters.  The poor girl was released just to drop dead at the door of her home.  One journalist took a note of the crime and organized a demonstration to the general attorney office.  Most people did not hear about this crime.  People are “busy” by the media who is only concerned with the political game.

Robbery: 

just a few examples!

-          March: A call from a friend.  He was travelling from Sana’a to Ibb.  He was stopped by gunmen, asked to leave the care with his family.  They took everything, including a large suFm of money, and then allowed him to leave. 

-          April: 2 couples, from the same family.  They spent their honeymoon in Hodiedah City.  They headed back to Sana’a on their car.  It is common these days to be stopped for around 20 check points, tribesmen, military, security... whatever.  This time the gunmen asked them to leave the car.  What happened after, the four people found dead after their car jumped down the hill.

-          May: Where, off Iran Street.  I was outside the gate of my house.  A man came, pulled me, by force.  I resisted and shouted.  My husband came out, I was rescued.  The man ran away!

Kidnapping:

For many when they think about kidnapping in Yemen, they think of adventure.  Well, not anymore.  Things have changed.  The recent kidnapping of a Spanish diplomat who disappeared on the way to the airport is just one example.  He was found shot and dead at one of the mountains in Sana’a.  The Hungarian Ambassador was also injured on a shooting targeting his car also in Sana’a.

Over the past two years kidnapping is not only targeting foreigners, but increasingly Yemenis.  Tens of Yemenis were abducted over the past twelve months for various reasons, including the kidnapping of women and children.

Traffic:

About 18 months ago the government decided that I wanted to enforce the use of safety seat belts in the cars and ban the use of mobile phones by drivers.  It issued a law with very high fines to be paid by violators.  At that time it was definitely not the most urgent priority to improve traffic, but it worked.

Today, thousands of unlicensed motor bikes and cars are running throughout the country.  In Sana’a, where motorbikes were banned, thousands of them are running unlicensed, and tens of un-tagged cars carrying gunmen are harassing people who do not clear the way for them quickly, including poor traffic police and military checkpoints.

You could park wherever you want, drive the wrong way, ignore the traffic police signal, and go on your way un-asked.  Not because you are driving a Porsche, or some luxury car, no, everybody could do it these days.  It is very common to see a driver shouting at the traffic policeman or arguing with him.

Filthy streets are now the role rather than the exception.  Trash is common, in the middle islands, and throughout the streets.  Shops and street vendors are free to use the sidewalks, and even the streets as a display or storage area, obstructing traffic.

Care for yourself, and avoid conflict.  This is the general rule.

Baltajia and Shabab:

Baltajia is a new word introduced to Yemen, or rather imported from Egypt.  It refers to people who are paid to enforce something against the will of others.  It was attached to a group of people (mostly tribesmen) who were supporters of President Saleh.  They confronted the anti-regime demonstrations.  Now after more than a year, there are still large groups of this type.  Initially it was believed that they were paid by President Saleh (or rather the government itself).  Now it is not clear how they are “paid”.  Many of these stay in tents in Tahrir Square, the center of Sana’a City.

Equivalent, is the “Shabab”, literally the youth.  People who went against the regime, demonstrated and established sit ins in a number of streets, especially the ring road (Da’ery Street).  These people initially established tents.  Now they have built more durable settlements.  They usually use them for Qat Chewing.  Many were also able to earn money by renting them to street vendors, repairs shops, or the alike.  These people are “paid” by donations from those with “sympathy” to the “cause”.  Most of the funding is believed to be coming from “external” sources.

Both groups “Shabab and Baltajia” are supporting a “cause”, are mobilized by political rivals, and are paid.  Both groups occupy large areas of public streets, with “Shabab” actually occupying a street that is more than 2 KM long.  Baltajia are protecting themselves.  You can hardly find any security presence in their area even after Saleh left.  Shabab, on the other hand, are protected by military and heavy armored machines. 

In principle, both are violating the law and the rights of people, obstructing public streets, harming the well-being of people by killing economic activity in the areas and jeopardizing health.  The coalition government has been trying to get rid of the sit in in Tahrir Square, but nothing has been done about the occupation of Da’ery street.  It seems that the ex-oposition parties are keeping  "Baltajia/shabab" as a tool in the upcoming "national dialogue" and maybe for other purposes...

Yemen, The Road to Total Disorder (1)

Yemen, The Road to Total Disorder (1)

 A couple of days ago, I was with a friend of mine, who happened to be American living in Yemen for a few years now.  Of course, the tragic crime in Al-Sabeen square was at the top of our talk.  We had a gathering in which we expected more than 20 people to show up, but only a few turned out.

In 2005, that is less than 7 years ago I had one of my longest trips in Yemen.  I was with my father, who was taking his first trip to Hadramout, and revisiting Aden after more than 50 years.

We left Sana’a on a Land Cruiser at about noon.  We took the road to Marib.  After a less than an hour, we stopped for lunch.  Then we continued to Marib, arriving before sunset at the famous Bilquis Hotel.  After a break, we went to watch the city at night.

The second day, we took a short trip to the Marib Dam, then hit the road to Sieyun.  In the road we were bothered by what we, then, saw as too many “security check-points”.  We spent a couple of days in Wadi Hadramout, visiting a number of tourist attractions.  Then again we hit the road to Mukalla.  A few days in Mukalla allowed us to see a few attractions and relax by the lovely beach.

In the road from Mukalla to Aden we passed a section of more than 50 KM that was in terrible condition and needed to be rehabilitated.  We saw some machinery but thought that the efforts were not enough to restore the roade.

We arrived in Aden in the afternoon and were ready to enjoy a lovely night.  My father, whose last visit was under the British rule more than 50 years ago put it this way “ Shame of them (former south Yemen regime), they just destroyed what was there.  They did not do nothing for over 30 years)….

During this long trip we had no worries about our security.  We travelled in our Land Cruiser fearing nothing, and carrying no weapon, whatsoever. 

My American friend experience is not different.  He went alone driving his car from Sana’a to Mahara, back to Sahbwah and Dhamar.  He hardly faced any trouble during this long trip….

Today, we are hardly able to move inside the Capital City, Sana’a.  As a Yemeni, of course I will avoid having a company of a foreigner.  Whenever possible I prefer to stay home.  I only move when it is necessary.

The story is just beginning.

A Nation for Sale

A Nation for Sale

In about a year from now most Yemenis were optimistic and enthusiastic about the prospects of change, and for a brighter future.  Change was the big title for Yemenis who are dreaming of a better life.  A life were justice prevails.  At that time the “change” meant bringing back the good values of people.  Values that were covered with rust and buried under tons of personal covets.

Truth, right, fairness, justice,.... and many good words have disappeared from our life in Yemen.   All we could hear is corruption, kidnapping, killing, theft,  and unjustice.  Yemenis were dreaming of changing all of that.  Tens of thousands of Yemenis joined the demonstrations, and many others were ready to support them.  

It seemed that people got fed up with the continuous deterioration, not just in their standard of living, but also in their own values and ethics.  Although everybody was contributing to the situation, there was no way out, and it seemed that a mass movement was the answer.

Day after day, the well known "youth movement" gathered support, and day after day the same movement's ideals eroded.  The masses were under tremendous media pressure and could not realize how the movement has lost its basic objectives.

The struggle became a power struggle.  The power sharing arrangement that was prevailing, was no longer acceptable to some partners who thought that they deserve more.  They took advantage of the "youth movement" and were able to monopolize it.  It was a chance that they could not miss.  The long-lived regime was not ready to give up.  In this seen the objectives of change took the back stage in a boiling theater.

The competition for the public continued between the regime and the opposition.  After a few weeks it became clear that no one is able to precede.  The last resort was the military confrontation.  The war started between the state and the opposing forces, and again there was a fine line that none of them could cross.

Many asked, and in away still puzzled about it, Why the regime was able to stand?.  The government was already weak before all of this started.  The authority of the government was only present in certain areas, and above all the government had hardly any financial resources after the blow up of Marib oil pipelines.  How did it happen?  and what kept the regime from collapsing?

On the other hand there was a tremendous support for the "youth movement", or that is how it appeared.  Why did the movement fail to win the battle? 

After all, one would wonder, how did the country hold together?.  The poor economy continued to function, and people continued to go about their daily life trying to secure their needs.  The government continued to pay salaries even at times when many people stopped paying taxes.

The "lousy" system continued to function and people were saved from the consequences of its collapse.  Apart from history, psychology of Yemenis, and the traditional structures that saved the country from dropping into a total ِchaos, how did the country sustain economically?  

Traditionally the government of Yemen has always resorted to the Gulf Countries.  Saudi Arabia in particular has been providing aid to the government for decades.  In critical times such as those of 2011, the neighbors must have put more money.

How about the opposition? How were they able to stand for months?  Were did they get their finances?  How did they finance thousands of people sitting in the streets, and of course chewing Qat!.

Islah, the head of the opposition, has its own big  "investments", but is that enough?.  Another source is the government itself that kept paying defected military division.  This is not enough.  The other money from those supporting the movement.  Local people, yes, but how much they could afford in crisis time.  Money was definitely coming from abroad, from those supporting the Yemen movement. Many noticed the exchange rate of the Yemeni Riyal going up at times a collapse was more logical.

So, values, good values, truth, justice, who cares?.  Change, yes, we have it!!!!

 

The political deal came.  The opposition, the regime, both had no choice.  Redistribution of power, yes, change, what?... It is sold...!!!

Go and Vote for it.

Game Over

Game Over

Playing is one of the things that accompany each of us throughout life.  Babies enjoy playing with their hands and legs, and as they grow up parents teach them new games.  When children learn how to play and start to enjoy playing parents put new rules and restrictions.  We want the child to know when it is a good time to play, how to observe the roles of the game, and when to stop.

As we grow up we think we know more about playing, and we think we are good players.  In many cases we are wrong.  Life is full of games that sometimes are not understood by us, even if we are part of them.

Last February thousands of Yemenis participated in what was then a nice game.  The game was expected to bring a necessary change to their country.  The game attracted more and more people who had dreamed of good future for them and their children.  People were still dreaming, and only a few of them started actually working for that dream.

Months had passed, and it seems the game is continuing.  What is happening?, how much time do we still need, do we know the roles?, Is the game over?....

 The dreams of people are no longer there.  The suffering made them dream of just last January. 

Losses are tremendous, and if these people do not realize that they have lost, this will create more and more suffering….. 

Game is over, can’t we realize?

The Victims

The Victims

After more than 4 months since the start of the crisis in Yemen things have deteriorated in the last couple of weeks to become an armed conflict.  A group of tribesmen loyal to the sons of Shiekh Abdulah Al-Ahmar (SAA) took over a number of government buildings including ministries, the official Yemen news agency (SABA), and the Water Authority.

After an initial response in which the house of SAA was targeted, President Saleh decided to have a ceasefire.  This ceasefire was apparently requested by Saudi Arabia in addition to a number of tribes’ leaders.  The mediation did not succeed and SAA’s tribesmen moved quickly after two days to occupy more government ministries including the Ministry of Education.

At that point the government forces started to use Special Forces to reclaim the government buildings.   The government forces succeeded in taking back the government buildings after heavy fighting.  The tribesmen moved to some residential buildings around the area of Al-Hasabah (where the main house of SAA is located) and in other areas of the city.

Friday has witnessed many serious developments.  After three days of fighting inside the Capital, the famous Friday payer gatherings of these pro the regime in Sabeen Square, and these against the regime in Siteen Street continued.  The number of people was the smallest in both Siteen Street and Sabeen Square since four monthgs.  The prayers ended peacefully.

One important thing to notice, a number of SAA fighters who were killed in the fighting in Hasaba were brought to Siteen Street where they were treated as martyrs! (Siteen Street is where the “revolutionists” hold their prayers every week).

After the prayers tribesmen were witnessed around the city of Sana’a and gun fires were heard in several areas.  It was another attempt of SAA fighters to spread chaos around the city.  

After a few hours the news came; the President was targeted by shells in the Nahdain Mosque inside the Presidential Palace during the Friday prayer.  The President, The Prime Minister, the Speaker of the Parliament, the Speaker of Shoura Council (a house of representatives), and two deputies of the Prime Ministers were badly injured in the attempted murder, and 7 guards were killed.

The satellite channel of SAA’s sons quickly reported the killing of the President.  Later the President gave a voice speech in which he talked about the accident and confirmed that he was well.

One should take note of a number of important details:

1. The events in Al-Hasabah were apparently a part of an overall scenario to take over the city of Sana’a, and probably take over the government.  Although some claim that the sons of SAA were targeted inside their home this cannot be true for a number of reasons; (a) the tribesmen took over government offices around the area, not only these beside the house of SAA, (b) the number of tribesmen was so large that they were actually able to take over a large number of government offices including the  Ministry of Trade, the SABA news agency, the Ministry of Tourism, the Water Authority, Yemeni Airlines compound, the Ministry of Local Authority, Land Registrar Authority, and parts of the Ministry of Interior. 

2. The forces of SAA used heavy weapons in their attacks including Lu missles and katyusha.

3. The forces of SAA tried to take over the airport and the official TV.

4.  Later the forces of SAA started their attacks in several parts of the city from houses they had rented earlier and equipped with weapons.

5. The attempted murder of President Saleh and other government leaders was the last step in the scenario to take over the rule of the country.

6. It was reported that the speaker in Siteen Street shouted “Allah Akbar” and added “there is an explosion inside the Presidential Palace” a few seconds after the attack.

Today, one of the leaders of the Islah Party (the Islamists party) gave President Saleh 24 hours to give his authorities to his deputy or face the formation of a “Transition Council”.

The “Youth Revolution” is now connected not only with corrupt people who are trying to escape any possible prosecution in the future, but also with gangsters who robbed and destroyed government offices, killed police and security people, and finally are working hard to complete a military coup to take power…..  

The victims are those young people who took to the streets looking for a better life and justice.  They were badly abused by corrupt people, the political elite, and the religious hardliners (who think they are “implementing the rule of God on earth”).   The victims are the people of Yemen who lost hope for a change that will improve their lives.

What is the future of Yemen among all these complications?



Confused!

When the youth movement started in early February 2011 most Yemenis were full of hope.  The hope for a change that will give them a chance to make a better life.  A chance to make justice prevail.  A chance to fight corruption and let those with better qualifications contribute to the future of the country.  For all of these hope thousands of people joined the movement that was gaining momentum day by day.

Later, a different group of people joined the movement.  A group that wanted to take advantage of the movement to gain political power.  This group include the opposition parties included in the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP)- the Islamic Islah Party, the Yemen Social Party, and a few smaller parties.  It also included some groups that are not recognized as political parties, but had been fighting against the government, namely the Houthis and Al-Qaeda.  

The third group that joined the protests were a number of the hard liners of Saleh's regime.  These who have been taking advantage of the regime for decades but felt it is time to jump the ship before it sinks.

The opposition parties do not have the support of the public and they do not have agendas for the future of the country.  Although they formed a coalition against Saleh's regime, they have more differences than agreements.  Over the past period they demonstrated to Yemenis that they will not be able to role a country with so much diversity.  Each one has a single focus: Islah want's to have an "Islamic Caliph" state, Yemen Social Party wants to have a Socialist regime.  These two main players are seen as fundamental movements that will not be able to accommodate others. 

The "poor" youth have continued their movement, which is now 4 months old.  They were supported financially by different groups including the JMP, but have lost both their values and goals.  Although their main objective continues to be "to demolish Saleh's regime", they have lost the support of the public that see no value in a "revolution" that is not bringing justice for all.

One can can immediately spot the confusion among the people in Tagheer Square (university).  The following picture shows Sadam Hussien, Al-Hamdi (a former President of Yemen who came after a coup against the only civilian president), and Shamlan (a socialist, and candidate for president who ran against President Saleh in 2006)..... The picture speaks for itself.... 

The picture  is an example of the confusion among the youth who are using symbols of dictatorship for a people-revolution......