?Mohsen Or Saleh

Mohsen or Saleh?

 

March 29, 2011

So the revolution is Yemen is clearly different from that of Tunisia and Egypt.  It is now the eighth week since the youth movement started.  People were not optimistic that things would go better, but had expected things at least to get clearer but they are not.

The country is dying.  Oil companies stopped working, most foreigners left, and many people are on compulsory leave.  Many small businesses are suffering, the uncertainty has affected everybody.  People are only doing what is necessary.  The majority are under pressure as they do not see light at the end of this crisis.  Every Friday is becoming a nightmare for the people of Sana'a, and many other cities in Yemen.

The "revolution" came with the principals of justice and the hopes for a change, for a better future for all Yemenis.  The youth movement generated a lot of enthusiasm among Yemenis young and elder.  The Tagheer or Change Square became a symbol for hope after years of disappointments.

The Friday massacre hit the Yemenis hard.  What happened and why?.  Where is this taking us?.  The answer came just two days after.  Ali Mohsen, half-brother of President Saleh and one of the main commanders of the Yemeni Army, decided to take side with the "youth" and "protect them".  He addressed the "youth" and sent his troops to "guard" the demonstrators.

So, the Yemeni Army is not neutral anymore in this escalating conflict.  An armed conflict is very possible.  For at least two days after the announcement of Mohsen most people in Sana'a could not sleep.  Movement of arms and troops was taking place after midnight.  Conflict was very close.

By Thursday the "Pro-change" groups started calling people to gather on Friday for the day of "Crawl" to the President's Palace.  On the other side government, for the first time, called people to go to the streets on Friday to express their support for dialog, and against "disorder".  The regime is now using the same weapons used by the "Pro-change" groups.

Surprisingly, hundreds of thousands of  people turned out in the government demonstrations, about the same number showed also in the "change" demonstration, .  President Saleh addressed the supporters confirming his intention to leave power, but into "safe hands" as he put it.  The competition now is for the masses between government and opponents.  The day of "Crawl" failed and President Saleh won this round.

Following the Friday, rumors were high about a possible settlement.  According to these rumors President Saleh was to step down very soon.  This rumors disappeared after the ruling party (People's General Congress) had its general body meeting and announced that Saleh is not to leave office before the end of his term.

In just two days another Friday is coming.  Rumors are already spreading about the "Farewell Friday".  The pro-change groups are again calling people to marsh to President Saleh's Palace.  Government has not yet reacted to this call.

What are the choices of Yemenis, specially these in Sana'a, this coming Friday?.  

Choice 1: Join the Saleh Group:

Joining means giving support to President Saleh and his regime.  Although people are fed up with Saleh and his regime, a lot of them are expected to show up.  Who is joining Saleh and why?.

1.  people benefiting from the regime including the ruling party.

2. people who are worried about the current fragile situation and possibilities of disorder, these would rather support Saleh than take the risk.

3. people who have lost confidence in the "revolution" which is led by Islah (the Islamic Party), the tribes, and defectors of Saleh's regime.

4. people see the concessions made by Saleh "good enough" to start the change process and support Saleh's call for negotiations.
5. people who think the pro-change group has no real "after-Saleh" plan.
6. people do not trust the Mohsen-led revolution and could not see how the change is possible.

Choice 2: Join the Mohsen Group:
Known as the "change" group, or the revolution group.  People who believe that change is a must.  These who are fed up with decades of Saleh's regime.  These who think a better future is before Yemen if Saleh is not at the top of the country.  Who is joining this group and why?
1. The youth driven by enthusiasm and hope.  These who witnessed the Egyptian youth succeeding in chaning the regime.
2. Opposition party members, including Islah (Islamic), and other smaller parties.  These are people who believe in the ideologies of their parties.  Party leaders do not usually take part on this demonstrations.
3. People who are fed up with corruption and looking for a way out.
4. The Houthis who have been fighting the regime for over 5 years.
5. people who believe in changing the regime immediately and through pressure.
6. Tribesmen loyal to Al-Ahmar family, a long-time ally of President Saleh that decided to shift to the "change-group".
7. Tribesmen loyal of Mohsen.

The Two Men:
Saleh:
- has been president for over 3 decades.
- was president of former Yemen Arab Republic.  He ruled the country through a single party, was able to maintain stability, but has damaged the role of the state and the law and has given much power to tribes.
- was successful in unifying the northern and southern parts of the country in a deal with the Socialist Party in the south.
- succeeded again in 1994 in defeating the former allies in the south after a short military confrontation.
- has given most of the executive power of the government to his family members and allies.
- was able to limit the influence of most of the political parties and dominate the parliament with his political party.
- leader of a corrupt regime that is not able to respond to peoples wishes or change itself.
- Has the legal "legitimacy" and many sources of power to hold on to his position.

Mohsen:
- half brother of Presiden Saleh and his "right-hand" (till Monday).
- promoted by Saleh in the military.
- a military commander in charge of a number of divisions within the Yemeni Army..
- led the war against the separatists in 1994.
- led six wars against the Houthis in northern Yemen.
- long-time allie and supporter of Islah (Islamic party).
- has influence on government as many officials were nominated by him.
- has allies among tribes.
- a big player in the real estate market.  He owns many large land plots and buildings in Sana'a and other parts of the country.
- one of a list of 16 people mentioned by a special committee formed by the government to investigate the causes of unrest in Aden in 2010.  The committee recommended that these people return large plots of land they took in Aden.

Which side would Yemenis take, the new Mohsen, or the old Saleh?

Tagheer or Tahrir? Revolution

ِJust a few week ago I wrote about my experience about Tagheer (change) square, I described it as "Yemen's Ongoing Festival", at about the same time I wrote about my experience in Tahrir square, which was described by many as the "Swamp".  At that time  Tagheer was lively, full of action, full of hopes, full of youth, it was a model of how Yemenis could live together, leaving their differences, and working for a common goal.  At that time Tahrir was the opposite.  It was a typical place of lazy tribesmen waiting to be paid for doing "Nothing".  It was reflecting the "bankruptcy of the Yemeni regime". 

How is the picture right now?.  Tagheer is now guarded by military.  The youth who used to search people and welcome them have disappeared.  The square is now full of tribesmen, in their tents they are chewing, and talking.  Search for the youth!... Where are the songs, dances, shows???... The youth are sitting there waiting for the next thing to happen.... They complain: "they are having negotiations, they are ignoring us, we need to raise our voices".

Two days ago the second man in the military, half brother of President Saleh, decided to "join the youth revolution and -protect them"..  This same man was among the list of President Saleh's family members that the revolution was asking for their trial.  This man has been the right hand of Saleh for 32 years...This same man has been the supporter of the Islah (Islamic party), the main opposition party.

In the big sign of "wanted" people, the name of this man, and others of Saleh's family who decided to "join the revolution" were simply scratched.

Tagheer... or Tahrir?... I am confused.

The Parliamentary System

The Parliamentary System

 

March 12, 2011

President Saleh is bringing, yet, another initiative in what it seems to be the last attempt to solve the political crisis in Yemen that has taken new dimensions after the spread of demonstrations and sit-ins throughout the country.  Because the opposition was expected to reject this new initiative Saleh presented it in a big meeting with his ruling party (The PGC).  It seems that the initiative was an attempt to improve the image of the regime outside Yemen.  It is also a way to defer attention from the growing support for the “pro-change” group. 

The initiative included an offer to amend the constitution, switch to a parliamentary system by the end of 2011, give more authority to new divisions of the country to be formulated on some geographical and economic criteria, and to form a national-unity government to change the electoral law to allow for proportional representation.

This initiative seems to be responding to most, if not all, demands of the opposition.  It is even offering to switch to a parliamentary system, a more advanced formula than was originally demanded by the opposition.  There are, however, many factors to believe that this initiative will be another failed attempt.

The regime and President Saleh have lost their credibility both among the Yemeni people and opposition.  For this reason the initiative is understood as an attempt to rescue the regime rather than to provide a solution to the crisis.  The opposition has no reason to believe that Saleh is sincere this time.  The fact that President Saleh called his own party to announce the initiative could mean two things, one he has lost contact with the opposition (the other side of the political crisis), and two the initiative is nothing but a way to differ the growing support to the pro-change movement. 

The opposition that has gained ground over the past few weeks is now more reluctant to go back to negotiations.  It has now more power to pressure Saleh and get more concessions from him.

Government failed, as expected, to promote this initiative through its media so most Yemenis did not think it was different from previous initiatives provided by the President.  International media did not take note of it.  On the political level the US and the EU did not give it the needed attention.

The initiative failed because it was badly communicated internally and internationally, being an initiative of the President who have given “too many” initiatives in the past few months, presented to the ruling party members and not the opposition, not discussed with the US and the European countries, and coming a few days after Saleh accused the US of being behind the “chaos” in the Arab World.

President Saleh is seen again as a leader who is trying to rescue himself and his regime, for this reason and others his efforts have failed and any future initiative are likely to fail regardless of the concessions.  On the other side the opposition, leaded now by the Joint-Meeting Parties, is not in a position to negotiate with the regime because of the fears of losing the masses on the streets. 

The situation in Yemen has come to a point where none of the parties is able to work with the other.  In such case there is only one remaining option for a peaceful resolution of the crisis.  That is to have a third party mediate the process, but who could play this role?

None of the Arab countries is in a position to play this role.  In addition to the sensitivity of the situation, every Arab country is busy with its own problems.  The US and the West are not well received from both parties.  The only country that I could think of at this time is Turkey. 

In addition to the history which cannot be ignored, Turkey has good relations with the government.  It is also seen as a democratic regime and Turkey’s position during the Egyptian revolution was highly appreciated by Yemenis, including the opposition.  Turkey has been increasing its presence in the region and this is another chance for the Turkish diplomacy to play a role.  Will this happen, or will Yemen be dragged into a civil war?

Yemen- What is Next?

Yemen-What is Next?

Date: March 6, 2011

 

This is an attempt to review the events over the past few months and read the implications for the future of events in Yemen.

The fall of Mubarak:

It is the fall of Mubarak that has triggered some dramatic developments in the already fragile situation in Yemen.  Since that day the number of Yemenis taking their discontent with the regime to the streets has been increasing, in addition to demonstrations a number of sit-ins have been formed in the main cities, i.e. Sana’a, Aden, Taiz, Ibb, and Hodeidah.  To better understand the situation in Yemen it is important to look back to 2009 and before.

The Elections:

In 2009 pressures from the opposition (mainly the opposition coalition known as the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP)), the European countries, and the US on the ruling party, the People’s General Congress (PGC), succeeded in convincing the PGC to delay parliamentary elections and enter into dialogue with the opposition.  The February agreement was mainly about the delay of parliamentary elections for two years.  The purpose was to give time to discuss amendments to the constitution. The JMP saw this as an opportunity to better prepare themselves for fair elections.  The PGC, on the other hand, saw it a way to buy time.

The opposition wanted the constitution to be amended to give more power to the parliament and reform the election system.  Several attempts to reach an agreement failed because President Saleh was not ready to accept reforms that would limit his power.  At the end of October 2010 the PGC practically announced the end of dialogue when it decided to go for the constitutional amendments and the scheduled parliamentary elections without the consent of the JMP.  The PGC was one step closer to replicate what the National Democratic Party did in Egypt, ignoring the opposition and forcing them out of the political game.  At that point of time Egypt was still perfectly stable. 

Several attempts by the JMP to gather support for demonstrations against the regime and what they considered as a “coup” by the PGC failed.  On January 14 the President of Tunisia flee to Jeddah shortly after demonstrations erupted in the country forcing the strong-hold president to leave. 

Leave!:

Demonstrations picked up in Egypt on Jan 25 and the scene of the millions of Egyptians was overwhelming to the whole world.  It was especially interesting for Yemen given the similarities between the two countries and regimes.  On Jan 27 the JMP, building on the situation in Egypt, succeeded in organizing the first demonstration.  The main message of the JMP was to denounce the PGC decision to abandon the February agreement.  This was, however, the first time President Saleh was called to leave. 

“The Day of Rage”:

Things were developing very quickly.  On February 2 President Saleh made a pledge not to run for another term and to freeze the controversial constitutional amendments.  He also introduced a few economic incentives and promised more jobs for the youth.

The steps taken by Saleh and his government did not stop the opposition from organizing more demonstrations.  The first Yemeni “day of rage” called by the JMP was on February 3.  The government was able to prevent the reproduction of Egyptian scenario by sending its supporters to occupy Tahreer Square (Liberation Square).  The opposition was taken by surprise and called its supporters to alternatively go to Sana’a University.  The “day of rage” was a very peaceful day.

The Youth:

On February 11 Mubarak stepped-down and several groups of unorganized youth took to the streets celebrating Egypt’s victory and calling Saleh to step down.  Pro-saleh people also took to the streets, initially confronting demonstrators.  After some clashes between the two groups that were seen as the regime’s use of “baltagia”, or paid people to target peaceful demonstrations, the government decided to protect demonstrators and refrain from using force.

While demonstrations against the regime continued by Sana’a University students (not related to JMP this time) JMP was reviewing Saleh’s call for dialogue.  On February 14 JMP agreed to go into dialogue.  Students’-led Demonstrations were growing as other groups joined them.  They were initially confronted by security forces and they eventually turned into sit-ins.  The sit-in near Sana’a University, being inspired by the sit-in in Taiz City, became a permanent camp attracting everybody against the regime.

JMP leaders were witnessing the progress the youth were making and they turned back and rejected Saleh’s call for dialogue and asked him to remove his relatives from key military and civil positions to ensure that he will keep the promises he made.   The JMP eventually abandoned all calls for dialogue and “joined forces” with the youth groups.  The new demand is the departure of President Saleh from power. 

Saleh Panics:

For the first time President Saleh has lost the initiative advantage.  He was moving hysterically trying to secure allies and defeat the growing “revolution”.  He contacted tribal leaders, met with military and government, and called the religious scholars.  He was repeating one word over and over again “dialogue”.  People in the street as well as the JMP decided to keep deaf ears on Saleh’s calls.

JMP was able to take back the lead from the youth especially in Sana’a.  Islah’s exceptional organizational ability was needed in the growing sit-in near Sana’a University (now known as Tagheer square).  The scene in Tagheer square was changing quickly, first the youth, then other civil groups, now led by the JMP.      

Tensions between the regime and Sheik Al-Ahmar’s sons were growing.  President Saleh lost one of his long-time allies as they broke up.  All the sons of Sheik Al-Ahmar turned against the President.

Saleh also was losing on another front.  A number of his PGC party resigned denouncing “the use of force against demonstrators”.  These include members of parliament and tribal leaders.  Religious leaders called to rescue by Saleh split into two groups when Islah’s Zandani called Saleh to leave by the end of this year.

Tagheer Square:

The scene in Tagheer Square, now led by Islah, was changing again, more tribes, the Houthis, and now religious leaders are joining in.  

Libya:

A number of external factors continue to affect the “game” in Yemen.  The new “revolution” in Libya and its violent shape has probably played in favor of Saleh’s regime.  People are now watching another scenario of the “revolution” and fear that such scenario is more likely in Yemen.

The JMP Game:

The JMP are making use of the “influence of the street” and realizing many benefits.  If President Saleh leaves, they will reap the fruits of the “revolution”.  If Saleh, on the other hand, is able to resist they are still the ones to negotiate with and they will have the option of going back to the negotiation table.

Saleh’s Game:

Saleh is still controlling a number of the game threads.  He is the President of Yemen.  This gives him a lot of flexibility to move.  He has control over the government in addition to other authorities including traditional forces in the society.  His family is controlling the military in addition to a number of key civil posts.  He is leading the ‘still’ largest political party and he has the sympathy of many Yemenis.  

Who is winning?

So what is the game all about?.  JMP are counting on the growing support for the “revolution”.  They think this support will eventually force Saleh to take hard decisions, either to leave, or make significant concessions.  They are not willing at this point to negotiate with Saleh and they think they have nothing to lose.

On the other hand Saleh is carefully watching the development in the streets.  The regime has learned to live with the demonstrations and sit-ins.  Demonstrations and sit-ins are being protected by security police.  In other places like Aden the government decided to withdraw the police from the streets.  This strategy is effective.  The number of demonstrations eventually went down and sit-ins are not growing in the same pace.  The regime is also keeping the option of deploying its supporters to confront opposition demonstrators.  The regime is again buying time.  They think the momentum of the “revolution” will slow down, the different groups will eventually revise their options, and things will become under control once again.

What is next?

There are a number of other factors that will affect the outcome of this game.  First, how will the attitude of the “now neutral” people in the main cities develop?.  These people still form the majority and they could change the balance.  Second, how will the traditional powers including tribes react to the situation?.   Third, how will external factors (the US, the European countries, the Gulf States, the developments in Libya and other places, other international event) affect each side.

Time is an important factor.  In two months the parliament term will expire and Saleh will lose one of its main “legitimacy” grounds.  On the other hand people in the cities of Sana’a, Aden, and Taiz are starting to feel the effects of demonstrations and sit-ins.  The economy is slowing down and many people are losing their income.  Who is to blame?...... The “revolution”. 

The Day of Rage

The Day of Rage

 

March 2, 2011

Like Tunisia and Egypt, Yemen has also its days of rage.  Friday is usually the opportunity for those against the regime to mobilize people.  All they need is to make the call and all it takes is for people to leave the mosques to the gathering points.  After Friday prayer people feel some strength and they are usually more ready for sacrifice.  Egypt has shown amazing response to the calls for the days of rage.  The revolution in Egypt was exemplary and historical in many ways.

Since the fall of Mubarak Yemenis have tried to copy what happened in Egypt.  Every Friday is becoming the gathering time for Yemenis calling for “change”.  In the past couple of weeks things have accelerated as many things happen, and waiting for a whole week is becoming a long time.  The killing of a number of people in Aden last week required a quick response from the change supporters.  There was a call for a day of rage on Tuesday in many places including Sana’a.

It is Tuesday morning March 1.  It is unusually quiet in Sana’a.  There are no children on the streets.  There are only a few cars running in Zubiery Street, the busiest street in the city.  Most businesses remain closed.  A few banks are opening their gates but there are no clients….  It is 9, it is 10, 11… the streets are still empty and most businesses are closed.  Children who went to school are returning home early simply because there were only a few of them that showed up.

Tahrir Square if full of people.  The whole area is closed.  These are the regime supporters.  Thousands of them are gathering.  Their call: “yes for stability, security, and order”.

On the other side of the city, in what’s now called Tagheer Square, pro-change supporters are gathering, with their call for change and the departure of President Saleh. 

The government pushed its supporters to Tahrir in response to the pro-change group call for a day of rage.  It is the regime’s way of keeping the streets under control.  Was it successful?, amazingly, Yes!.   

Between the Tahrir and Tagheer groups, around 40,000 to 50,000 people were sort of having “fun” shouting and dancing.  Where are the other people of Sana’a?

Most people decided to stay home.  Many businesses were closed big companies and smaller ones.  It was an enjoyable experience to take a drive around the City.  Most people prepared themselves for the worst.  People are not (yet) used to demonstrations and they fear that things could go out of control. 

Will Yemenis learn to live with these fears?, How soon de we expect this situation to last?  Big questions in the minds of many, but the answer is unfortunately unknown!.... 

The Security Officer

The Security Officer

 

Feb 28, 2011

As I promised, I went to the “pro-regime” group in Tahrir Square.  I accompanied a friend of mine.  We decided to go just before mid-day.  It is no secret that there has been a lot of criticism for the government about Tahrir.  In addition to the fact that government rushed to occupy the square before the opponents do, they mainly used a group of paid people and equipped them with sticks (Sameel in Yemeni dialect) to defend the place.  There also has been a talk about the swamp, the bad smell, and lack of cleanness.

We were lucky enough to find a parking spot nearby.  We stopped, crossed the street and, there we were.  Although there were a number of police cars, we were not searched and we walked directly towards the tents.  A few men were sleeping in the side-walks, others were walking around, many with Sameels.  Most of the tents were huge.  They were marked with the names of some areas “Bani Hoshaish, Bani Al-Harith, Manakah…etc”.  They were only a few tents.  On the tents and elsewhere there was big signs talking about security and stability, and in support for the president.  A number of men were either sleeping, or sitting in each tent.  There wasn’t much activity.

The first gathering was around two nice horses.  People were taking pictures while riding the horses.  We walked around to find a man selling pictures of the president and some flags.  On the west side we found a separate group of tents.  We thought they were for other groups, so we walked around and entered. Small tents filled with small things were aligned.  It was a fair for “productive NGOs”.  Many tents were actually closed.  There were only a few people.  As a matter of fact it was only me and my friend walking in that area.

While I was walking I took a few pictures.  I was careful not to take pictures of the equipped men, those who are holding “Sameels”…  I took a few pictures of the fair.  We were about to leave the handicrafts fair when a guy dressed in traditional thawb came towards us.  He stopped me.  “What are you taking pictures of?, show me your mobile” he said.  My friend asked him who he was; he identified himself as the security officer.  He asked for our IDs, and we replied asking for his ID.  As we walked out of the fair area we were arguing.  He said “some people take pictures for Suhail Channel”.  We told him we were not here for that purpose.  We criticized him telling him we came to see what is happening, and “to support” and you don’t like it… he apologized as we were leaving the square.

Before we left we passed by a small gathering.  A person on the stage was encouraging dancers to continue “baraa”.  Nearby men were still sleeping on the side-walk, beside one of them there was an exceptionally big Sameel.  A skinny old man, who could hardly walk, passed while holding his Sameel.