The Parliamentary System
March 12, 2011
President Saleh is bringing, yet, another initiative in what it seems to be the last attempt to solve the political crisis in Yemen that has taken new dimensions after the spread of demonstrations and sit-ins throughout the country. Because the opposition was expected to reject this new initiative Saleh presented it in a big meeting with his ruling party (The PGC). It seems that the initiative was an attempt to improve the image of the regime outside Yemen. It is also a way to defer attention from the growing support for the “pro-change” group.
The initiative included an offer to amend the constitution, switch to a parliamentary system by the end of 2011, give more authority to new divisions of the country to be formulated on some geographical and economic criteria, and to form a national-unity government to change the electoral law to allow for proportional representation.
This initiative seems to be responding to most, if not all, demands of the opposition. It is even offering to switch to a parliamentary system, a more advanced formula than was originally demanded by the opposition. There are, however, many factors to believe that this initiative will be another failed attempt.
The regime and President Saleh have lost their credibility both among the Yemeni people and opposition. For this reason the initiative is understood as an attempt to rescue the regime rather than to provide a solution to the crisis. The opposition has no reason to believe that Saleh is sincere this time. The fact that President Saleh called his own party to announce the initiative could mean two things, one he has lost contact with the opposition (the other side of the political crisis), and two the initiative is nothing but a way to differ the growing support to the pro-change movement.
The opposition that has gained ground over the past few weeks is now more reluctant to go back to negotiations. It has now more power to pressure Saleh and get more concessions from him.
Government failed, as expected, to promote this initiative through its media so most Yemenis did not think it was different from previous initiatives provided by the President. International media did not take note of it. On the political level the US and the EU did not give it the needed attention.
The initiative failed because it was badly communicated internally and internationally, being an initiative of the President who have given “too many” initiatives in the past few months, presented to the ruling party members and not the opposition, not discussed with the US and the European countries, and coming a few days after Saleh accused the US of being behind the “chaos” in the Arab World.
President Saleh is seen again as a leader who is trying to rescue himself and his regime, for this reason and others his efforts have failed and any future initiative are likely to fail regardless of the concessions. On the other side the opposition, leaded now by the Joint-Meeting Parties, is not in a position to negotiate with the regime because of the fears of losing the masses on the streets.
The situation in Yemen has come to a point where none of the parties is able to work with the other. In such case there is only one remaining option for a peaceful resolution of the crisis. That is to have a third party mediate the process, but who could play this role?
None of the Arab countries is in a position to play this role. In addition to the sensitivity of the situation, every Arab country is busy with its own problems. The US and the West are not well received from both parties. The only country that I could think of at this time is Turkey.
In addition to the history which cannot be ignored, Turkey has good relations with the government. It is also seen as a democratic regime and Turkey’s position during the Egyptian revolution was highly appreciated by Yemenis, including the opposition. Turkey has been increasing its presence in the region and this is another chance for the Turkish diplomacy to play a role. Will this happen, or will Yemen be dragged into a civil war?
ليست هناك تعليقات:
إرسال تعليق