Confused!

When the youth movement started in early February 2011 most Yemenis were full of hope.  The hope for a change that will give them a chance to make a better life.  A chance to make justice prevail.  A chance to fight corruption and let those with better qualifications contribute to the future of the country.  For all of these hope thousands of people joined the movement that was gaining momentum day by day.

Later, a different group of people joined the movement.  A group that wanted to take advantage of the movement to gain political power.  This group include the opposition parties included in the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP)- the Islamic Islah Party, the Yemen Social Party, and a few smaller parties.  It also included some groups that are not recognized as political parties, but had been fighting against the government, namely the Houthis and Al-Qaeda.  

The third group that joined the protests were a number of the hard liners of Saleh's regime.  These who have been taking advantage of the regime for decades but felt it is time to jump the ship before it sinks.

The opposition parties do not have the support of the public and they do not have agendas for the future of the country.  Although they formed a coalition against Saleh's regime, they have more differences than agreements.  Over the past period they demonstrated to Yemenis that they will not be able to role a country with so much diversity.  Each one has a single focus: Islah want's to have an "Islamic Caliph" state, Yemen Social Party wants to have a Socialist regime.  These two main players are seen as fundamental movements that will not be able to accommodate others. 

The "poor" youth have continued their movement, which is now 4 months old.  They were supported financially by different groups including the JMP, but have lost both their values and goals.  Although their main objective continues to be "to demolish Saleh's regime", they have lost the support of the public that see no value in a "revolution" that is not bringing justice for all.

One can can immediately spot the confusion among the people in Tagheer Square (university).  The following picture shows Sadam Hussien, Al-Hamdi (a former President of Yemen who came after a coup against the only civilian president), and Shamlan (a socialist, and candidate for president who ran against President Saleh in 2006)..... The picture speaks for itself.... 

The picture  is an example of the confusion among the youth who are using symbols of dictatorship for a people-revolution......

Freedom of Speech

For Yemenis freedom of speech is not necessarily one of the priorities.  It is not the government that keeps them from expressing themselves freely, but also traditions, values, the tribe, the community, among other things.  In this part of the world a word is more than just a combination of few letters.  

Before 1990 Yemenis  were subject to controlled media.  There were almost no private media and even imported media was subject to strict censorship.  Since then things have very much changes.  There are hundreds of local newspapers and publication most of which are private.  The change in 1990 was like a shock to the conservative society.

Initially those who were working for the public media established their own newspapers, but later many people entered this "market".  Many of the new newspapers are managed by people who want to make money.  They do not have any journalism background.  They established many "yellow" journals.

On the other hand political parties established their own newspapers and media tools.  Their objective is to promote their ideas among the public.

In the early 1990 most of the media were somehow guarded by unwritten controls, but very soon these controls disappeared in favor of political and business interests.  This has affected the culture of people that gives high value for "the word"... 

The media was not able to play a positive role in educating people and helping raise awareness, but was able to "make stories" rather than "report stories".  Most of the stories about corruption, for example, were not taken seriously by the public and authorities.  There is no doubt that the media played a major role in the current crisis in Yemen.

The Yemeni government decided earlier to turn a deaf-ear towards what is on the media.  With few exceptions, journalists are free to write whatever they want.

In the current crisis the media is playing a big role.  There is a war between pro-regime media and opposition media.  The opposition media is trying to "get the support of the public to the change movement", on the other hand, the pro-regime media is trying to get the trust of the public.

The freedom of speech has changed how people think in Yemen.  It has probably changed the value of  a "word" in the mind of Yemenis, but not for all of us!

In an unprecedented indecent that happened yesterday, Al-Omaisi, a local poet from Al-Qafr (Ibb) who is famous for praising President Saleh, was kidnapped in Taiz street in Sana'a.  His tongue was cut off.  The efforts to rescue him failed.....

This dogmatic act cannot be left without punishment.....

The Yemeni Game

Most observers, including Yemenis, expected a frightening scenario for Yemen.  They expected civil war at the beginning of the crisis that is now 13 weeks old.  Most Yemenis prepared themselves for the worst during the first week of the crisis.  They stacked food items, reduced their movement outside their homes, and also prepared their guns among other measures they took to protect themselves!

In first few weeks many people decided to keep their children home, while others closed their businesses or reduced the operating hours.  Foreign companies sent their expats outside the country and some gave their employees an open leave.  Many Yemeni businesses also started to lay off some of their employees.

Now, after 13 weeks things are not so bad.  Food items and other basic needs are still readily available.  There are some difficulties in securing home-gas and more blackouts than usual, but the situation is still bearable.

Children are going to school normally.  Many people are going back to their normal routine and businesses are operating until late hours at night.  The streets are almost as crowded as in early February.  The government's strategy to reduce the presence of security forces in the city did not affect the security situation in the city.  

The seceding of Ali-Mohsen and his forces raised more fears about the situation.  It has, undoubtedly, made it more difficult to resolve the crisis, but since then ( March 21) the experience has shown that all parties are very careful about the use of force.

The police forces are still guarding Zubeiry street, having some special equipment for the purpose of dispersing demonstrators.  On the other side of the street, particularly in Sixty-Meter road you sometime notice  soldiers that belong to Ali Mohsen.  There was only a couple of incidents of clashes between these forces and police forces right after Mohasen announcement.

The past ten days were very peaceful in Sana'a.  There were no demonstrations and the tension has gone down tremendously.

The initiative design by the Gulf countries to resolve the crisis did not go through after some dispute about the formalities.  This is on the surface, but in fact none of the two sides was ready to implement it.

Ironically, the "youth movement" and the demands for change were very much popular at the begging of the crisis.  President Saleh has lost a lot of support even from his own party.  The "change movement" was very popular among the majority of people.  The pro-regime people were very much "scared" to announce their position.  The ruling party (PGC) had lost the ability to act.  Saleh was put in the corner and could only give concessions, one after another.

The concessions given by Saleh were "not good enough" for the opposition and change movement to accept.  They were rejected immediately.  Both the opposition and the youth movement were firm, "no negotiations with President Saleh and his regime".

Four weeks ago Saleh decided to call his supporters to go to the streets.  One Friday, after another, an increasing number of Yemenis are demonstrating in support for Saleh.  At the same time, the change movement have lost a lot of its momentum.  A number of factors contributed to that:
1. The filthy language used by Saleh opponents in the media and public has backfired.  Many Yemenis this against their cultural values.  At the same time, the official media of Saleh was able to regain some trust from the public.
2. The seceding of Mohsen, among other former regime officials has weakened the change movement that lost sympathy from the public.
3. A number of opposition leaders failed to present an "alternative" to the public.  In their media speeches they    did not give a "plan for the future".  Al-Biedh, Basindwah, Qahtan, Zaid, and Hamid Al-Ahmar all raised more fears about the future of the country and the possibility of seceding of the south.
4. Some of the opposition parties started to use its members to intimidate the public.  They used speakers of the mosques, they tried to force people into strikes, and harassed, and in some cases physically attacked, those who do not agree with them.
5. The "no negotiation" attitude of the opposition and youth movement was increasingly seen by the public, who would like to see an end to this crisis, as an acceptable attitude.

The Yemeni streets are split these days.  Saleh supporters are now out in the public, and those against him have lost much of the sympathy and support.  Opposition parties were not able to take advantage of the public support that reached its peak maybe in week 4 of the crisis.  The youth seem to have no strategy or plan.

The opposition parties are in difficult situation.  If they eventually accept a political settlement that will ensure fair elections, they do not have the required support to rule, and if they refuse they will eventually lose more supporters.  An alternative is to use the military!

The average Yemeni citizen is the one who stands to lose his/her job.  For how long can these average Yemenis stand?