Most observers, including Yemenis, expected a frightening scenario for Yemen. They expected civil war at the beginning of the crisis that is now 13 weeks old. Most Yemenis prepared themselves for the worst during the first week of the crisis. They stacked food items, reduced their movement outside their homes, and also prepared their guns among other measures they took to protect themselves!
In first few weeks many people decided to keep their children home, while others closed their businesses or reduced the operating hours. Foreign companies sent their expats outside the country and some gave their employees an open leave. Many Yemeni businesses also started to lay off some of their employees.
Now, after 13 weeks things are not so bad. Food items and other basic needs are still readily available. There are some difficulties in securing home-gas and more blackouts than usual, but the situation is still bearable.
Children are going to school normally. Many people are going back to their normal routine and businesses are operating until late hours at night. The streets are almost as crowded as in early February. The government's strategy to reduce the presence of security forces in the city did not affect the security situation in the city.
The seceding of Ali-Mohsen and his forces raised more fears about the situation. It has, undoubtedly, made it more difficult to resolve the crisis, but since then ( March 21) the experience has shown that all parties are very careful about the use of force.
The police forces are still guarding Zubeiry street, having some special equipment for the purpose of dispersing demonstrators. On the other side of the street, particularly in Sixty-Meter road you sometime notice soldiers that belong to Ali Mohsen. There was only a couple of incidents of clashes between these forces and police forces right after Mohasen announcement.
The past ten days were very peaceful in Sana'a. There were no demonstrations and the tension has gone down tremendously.
The initiative design by the Gulf countries to resolve the crisis did not go through after some dispute about the formalities. This is on the surface, but in fact none of the two sides was ready to implement it.
Ironically, the "youth movement" and the demands for change were very much popular at the begging of the crisis. President Saleh has lost a lot of support even from his own party. The "change movement" was very popular among the majority of people. The pro-regime people were very much "scared" to announce their position. The ruling party (PGC) had lost the ability to act. Saleh was put in the corner and could only give concessions, one after another.
The concessions given by Saleh were "not good enough" for the opposition and change movement to accept. They were rejected immediately. Both the opposition and the youth movement were firm, "no negotiations with President Saleh and his regime".
Four weeks ago Saleh decided to call his supporters to go to the streets. One Friday, after another, an increasing number of Yemenis are demonstrating in support for Saleh. At the same time, the change movement have lost a lot of its momentum. A number of factors contributed to that:
1. The filthy language used by Saleh opponents in the media and public has backfired. Many Yemenis this against their cultural values. At the same time, the official media of Saleh was able to regain some trust from the public.
2. The seceding of Mohsen, among other former regime officials has weakened the change movement that lost sympathy from the public.
3. A number of opposition leaders failed to present an "alternative" to the public. In their media speeches they did not give a "plan for the future". Al-Biedh, Basindwah, Qahtan, Zaid, and Hamid Al-Ahmar all raised more fears about the future of the country and the possibility of seceding of the south.
4. Some of the opposition parties started to use its members to intimidate the public. They used speakers of the mosques, they tried to force people into strikes, and harassed, and in some cases physically attacked, those who do not agree with them.
5. The "no negotiation" attitude of the opposition and youth movement was increasingly seen by the public, who would like to see an end to this crisis, as an acceptable attitude.
The Yemeni streets are split these days. Saleh supporters are now out in the public, and those against him have lost much of the sympathy and support. Opposition parties were not able to take advantage of the public support that reached its peak maybe in week 4 of the crisis. The youth seem to have no strategy or plan.
The opposition parties are in difficult situation. If they eventually accept a political settlement that will ensure fair elections, they do not have the required support to rule, and if they refuse they will eventually lose more supporters. An alternative is to use the military!
The average Yemeni citizen is the one who stands to lose his/her job. For how long can these average Yemenis stand?
The police forces are still guarding Zubeiry street, having some special equipment for the purpose of dispersing demonstrators. On the other side of the street, particularly in Sixty-Meter road you sometime notice soldiers that belong to Ali Mohsen. There was only a couple of incidents of clashes between these forces and police forces right after Mohasen announcement.
The past ten days were very peaceful in Sana'a. There were no demonstrations and the tension has gone down tremendously.
The initiative design by the Gulf countries to resolve the crisis did not go through after some dispute about the formalities. This is on the surface, but in fact none of the two sides was ready to implement it.
Ironically, the "youth movement" and the demands for change were very much popular at the begging of the crisis. President Saleh has lost a lot of support even from his own party. The "change movement" was very popular among the majority of people. The pro-regime people were very much "scared" to announce their position. The ruling party (PGC) had lost the ability to act. Saleh was put in the corner and could only give concessions, one after another.
The concessions given by Saleh were "not good enough" for the opposition and change movement to accept. They were rejected immediately. Both the opposition and the youth movement were firm, "no negotiations with President Saleh and his regime".
Four weeks ago Saleh decided to call his supporters to go to the streets. One Friday, after another, an increasing number of Yemenis are demonstrating in support for Saleh. At the same time, the change movement have lost a lot of its momentum. A number of factors contributed to that:
1. The filthy language used by Saleh opponents in the media and public has backfired. Many Yemenis this against their cultural values. At the same time, the official media of Saleh was able to regain some trust from the public.
2. The seceding of Mohsen, among other former regime officials has weakened the change movement that lost sympathy from the public.
3. A number of opposition leaders failed to present an "alternative" to the public. In their media speeches they did not give a "plan for the future". Al-Biedh, Basindwah, Qahtan, Zaid, and Hamid Al-Ahmar all raised more fears about the future of the country and the possibility of seceding of the south.
4. Some of the opposition parties started to use its members to intimidate the public. They used speakers of the mosques, they tried to force people into strikes, and harassed, and in some cases physically attacked, those who do not agree with them.
5. The "no negotiation" attitude of the opposition and youth movement was increasingly seen by the public, who would like to see an end to this crisis, as an acceptable attitude.
The Yemeni streets are split these days. Saleh supporters are now out in the public, and those against him have lost much of the sympathy and support. Opposition parties were not able to take advantage of the public support that reached its peak maybe in week 4 of the crisis. The youth seem to have no strategy or plan.
The opposition parties are in difficult situation. If they eventually accept a political settlement that will ensure fair elections, they do not have the required support to rule, and if they refuse they will eventually lose more supporters. An alternative is to use the military!
The average Yemeni citizen is the one who stands to lose his/her job. For how long can these average Yemenis stand?
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