2011/04/20

Demonstrations In Yemen

Given the current crisis in Yemen and the attention given by the media to events in Yemen, I find many amazing things are are not reflected in the media.  The media is mainly concerned about the "plot" and not many of the important things that impact the daily life of Yemenis.....

At the beginning of this crisis there had been a lot of fears that a civil war would immediately breakout.  Yemenis have weapons in their position including fire arms, and even before the current crisis, there were a lot of conflicts in which fire arms were used.  Disputes about land is one of the most important causes for conflicts.  In addition a number of groups use arms to pressure the government either to get money or other privileges.

In the first few weeks people were gathering weapons, and getting ready to "fight" and protect their properties against the "tribes" who will come to rob Sana'a.  President Saleh's meetings with the tribes around Sana'a were mostly interpreted as a preparation for the intended raid on Sana'a.

It became clear that the government was aware of the fact that any armed conflict will actually backfire.  The government decided to loosen its grip.  At the same time anti-government movement, including the youth, the opposition parties, and the defector Ali Mohsen and his forces followed a similar strategy.

Although there have been some exceptions, the demonstrations are generally peaceful. Demonstrators are usually dispersed using the common tools like tear gas and water.  Police forces are only equipped with sticks and shields, no fire arms.

I  have witnessed a number of demonstrations in the recent days in Sana'a.  The new "pro Saleh demonstrations" are usually running smoothly throughout the city.  A growing number is participating in these demonstrations as the crisis continues.  Many people stand to watch and picture these demonstrations.
 (pro Saled demonstration, April 19, 2011)

The anti regime demonstrations are different.  They usually originate from the sit-in square near Sana'a University.  Although there have been only a few demonstrations over the past 2 months, the intensity of demonstrations increased since negotiations started between government and the opposition parties.

Here are some observations related to anti-regime demonstrations:
1. Sunday April 17, 2011: I came across a demonstration that was able, for the first time to cross Zubiery Street.  A few thousand people (2000-3000) were going into Al-Jeria Street.  They were shouting slogans against President Saleh and the regime.  While passing they would paint slogans on the walls.  A number of residents were gathering to watch them.  They went down the street and stopped to through stones on a small house.  That house had a picture of President Saleh.  The owner went to the roof and started shooting to the air.  A number of policemen formed a wall to stop demonstrators, and the special cars started to fire tear gas and use hot water to disburse demonstrators.

After 10 minutes the street was clear.  The demonstrators run into side streets and backed up.  There were hundreds of shoes on the street!... Most of the demonstrators were teenagers wearing traditional Yemeni Thawb.  They started to come out of their hiding as police forces were standing ready to disperse them if they come back.  A number of people dropped, a few emergency cars took them to hospitals.  There was no deaths.

All policemen had only sticks and shields.  They did not carry fire arms.  When demonstrators started to through stones, the policemen reacted with throwing stones.

2. April 19, 2011 demonstration, Siteen/Zubeiry street:
A large number of people were coming from Siteen Street going south.  Police forces were standing at the intersection with Zubeiry Street.  The made a wall separating the demonstrators from tribesmen (supporters of Saleh) on the other side.  As demonstrators approached shouting "Go out" slogan tension mounted.

The police started to fire tear-gas and water at demonstrators.  The demonstrators started to back off.  After a few minutes some gun shots were coming from the side of the demonstrators.  The policemen, equipped with sticks only, ran away.  Some sent to the side streets.  The demonstrators followed them.  At that point, the tribesmen ran toward demonstrators....

In the side streets demonstrators were able to capture a policeman.  They beat him till he became unconscious.  They carried him and ran away.....

Fight continues between tribesmen and demonstrators for a while until all demonstrators left the area.

10 policemen were "taken" and "kidnapped" by the demonstrators.

Today, opposition parities are in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and government team is in UAE.  They are are looking for a solutions for the crisis!

This is a serious development.  Demonstrators kidnapped police forces and took them.  This is raising tension and the relation between the two will never be the same.  It is believed that some third group participated in the demonstrations and kidnapped the policemen.....

The coming days may witness an escalating conflict that could result in more casualties......  The conflict, and demonstrations could take a violent turn!.....

2011/04/16

The Media War

The Media War

It has been more than 2 months since the youth movement started in Yemen.  Most people who are interested in Yemen can only rely on the media to learn about the situation here.  Most people, including the majority of Yemenis, have been overwhelmed by the media coverage of the events in Yemen.  They have formed their opinions and attitudes based on the information provided.  Some rely on international sources, and a few on local sources of information.  I would like here to challenge the media coverage of events in Yemen.  I would like to call everybody to look beyond the pieces of news given by the media.  If possible, I would like you to go out to the streets of Sana'a to learn more about what is happening.

The illusion of numbers:
Since the start of the demonstrations against the regime we have been hearing about the "millions" of Yemenis who are taking to the streets.  Recently, since the regime started to mobilize supporters, we have also been hearing about the other "millions" that are pro regime.  Lets pause for a moment to see what is behind the figures.

If we look at Al-Tagheer square (change), it is in the Ring road.  Currently the sit-in area extends over a length of 2200 meters- let it be 2500 given the branches in a few side streets (based on calculations on google earth).  We know that the Ring road is about 20 meters wide.  If we consider that a person will need a minimum of 1 square meter, the maximum number of demonstrators on Friday is 50,000 (if we ignore the curbs and tents)...  Tagheer is 50,000 people MAX

On the other hand, lets look at Al-Tahrir/Sabeen (the pro government).  The length of the demonstration site is about 5000 meters.  The width is 50 meters in Tahrir square(extending over 500 meters), and 65 meters in Sabeen square (extending over 900 meters).  The other streets are between 18 and 25 meters wide.  The estimate is 111,800 people in the whole area (based on a 1.5 square meters per person).... Tahreer is around 100,000 people MAX

In addition to the maximum capacity of the areas of demonstrations (pro and against government), lets look at the population.  Sana'a has a population of 2 million.  75% are women, children, and elderly, leaving 500,000 who go to the demonstrations.  Based on my own observations on Fridays, the number of worshipers has declined by a maximum of 30%.  If we assume that 800,000 people attend the Friday prayers in ordinary days and 50% are "youth" then 200,000 are still going to the mosques.  That is leaving 300,000 to participate in the demonstrations in Tagheer and Tahrir together!...

We did not account for the comers from outside Sana'a.  These people be all estimates cannot be more than tens of thousands (Sana'a has three major roads connecting it to the other parts of the country and roads simply cannot accommodate "millions of people" who come in less than 24 hours)...

Conclusion:
There are no millions participating in the demonstrations, the majority of Yemenis are not there.  and remember that 75% of Yemenis live in rural areas.....


The media war is continuing, raising tension between Yemenis.  The situation is very much volatile and could lead to civil war if it continues.  Yesterday I was near Al-Tagheer square area buying chickens.  The seller was arguing with some people.  He was telling them "ok.... go to Sabeen and get your 5000", one of these people was upset.  They were close to fighting.  I noticed the high level of tension in that area like no other place.  

This tension is noticed everywhere.  When you observe the tone of the language in facebook, for example, you would be surprised.  "hypocrites, infidels, stupid, " from one side, and "traitors, extremists...."  The situation is not different in many other places, especially in rural areas.

 There is a tendency for the media to "exaggerate" and show how "bad things are in Yemen"... The problem is how each side is using the media, and how people are receiving this.  We need to set back and think once more before we make conclusions about what is happening in Yemen.  People need to rethink their positions and believe that they can still live together.


Picture of Rabat street across the Ring road 30 minutes before the Friday prayers (April 15).....


Video in 45 street, Saleh Supporters... Zanga Zanga

2011/04/09

Yemen, another Libya?

Yemen, another Libya?

After more than two months since the start of the youth movement the picture of the situation in Yemen is becoming more blurry.  It is not only the regime and the youth demanding its departure, it is much more.

Al-Islah, the most influential Islamic party officially declared a war on the regime.  Al-Islah through its religious wing declared "holy war" against President Saleh.  Al-Zandani, the party spiritual leader, declared this the dawn of the "Islamic Caliphate State".  In a speech in the Tagheer Square in Sana'a on March 1, he asked supporters to continue their "Jihad" until the regime leaves (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nu9mZX3LdJU).  

Two weeks after the speech of Al-Zandani more than 50 demonstrators were killed by gunmen while they were trying to demolish a wall established to prevent demonstrators from expanding their sit-in area.  Following that Friday Ali Mohsen (one of the main figures of Saleh's regime- and a commander of one of the main divisions of the Yemeni Army) decided to "support the youth revolution" and send his troops to protect the demonstrators.

Ali Mohsen has been known for his support for Al-Islah Party for a long time.  He provided them with land and funds to establish Al-Eman University among other sorts of support he has given the group.  The defection of Ali Mohsen (half-brother of Saleh) is seen as a military coup by the Islamic party.

After the defection of Ali Mohsen tensions in Yemen rose dramatically.  Mohsen's main camp is in the middle of Sana'a City.  Military confrontation was very close with the Republican Guards under Ahemd, the sun of President Saleh.

Mohsen is not only a military commander.  He is also one of the main political leaders.  He had been the regime's main contact with the tribes, and he had tremendous influence in the appointment of many governments and officials.

A few days after the defection of Mohsen, the two sides found that a military confrontation was too costly.  Since then Saleh's regime decided it is time to use the same weapon used by the opposition, the "street".  Saleh was able to gather thousands of people in three consecutive Fridays.  This move gave Saleh another reason to resist.

Apart from the Fridays show off of the opposition and the regime, there is another war.  Saleh succeeded in convincing his tribesmen to go for a mediation effort with Mohsen.  Apparently Mohsen decided to stop such efforts when his men fired on the mediation team killing two and injuring others.  By tribal customs this act is considered an offense on the tribe.  The tribes of Sanhan, among others, declared war on Mohsen.

In a separate incident, Mohsen's soldiers fired on a number of cars passing near his military camp while raising the pictures of President Saleh on Friday 8, 2011 killing two tribesmen.

In other parts of the country the situation is deteriorating rapidly.  After Abyan and Shabwah (Al Qaeda), government forces surrendered to Hothi groups in Sadah, Al-Jawf.  Al-Islah groups attacked Marib governorate which is now under their control.

The situation in Yemen is very similar to that of Libya.  Although the main cities are still under government control, the mounting tension and inability of the regime, as well as the opposition to act could lead to a breakthrough of a civil war.  Each side is using its last cards. 


  

2011/04/05

Time to Think

It has been about two months since the start of the uprising in Yemen.  The revolution that was inspired by Tunisia and Egypt is quite different.  The youth started their movement with the same demands of the Tunisian and Egyptian youth, to overthrew the regime.  The demands seems legitimate given the failure of the regime to solve the problems of the country, and to meet the dreams of the young generation.

After this long period one needs to ask why has the youth movement failed to overthrew the regime in Yemen?.  There are of course a number of reasons:

1. The youth movement, although popular, has lost its popularity a few weeks after it started.  A number of factors contributed to this.
-First the youth movement was taken over (for the most part) by the (unpopular) opposition parties.
-Second, and after this long time, the movement has not been able to provide a convincing alternative to the regime with a clear plan and strategy (this is particularly important given the diverse composition of the oppositions powers, from the far right to the left).
-Third, the principals and values of the revolution were violated when unpopular (corrupt) figures joined the uprising with a "welcome" from the youth.
2. The youth movement continue to be a minority among the population of Yemen which is mainly rural.  With the exception of tribesmen who were brought to Sana'a by Islah Party and its allies, the rural people have not contributed to the revolution.
3.  Although the regime was hardly hit by the decision of Ali Mohsen, commander of one of the main Army units, to support the revolution, it also made people fear the possible break of a war within the Army.
4. The regime has learned from the experience of Tunisia and Egypt.  The regime demonstrations, keeping low profile, and avoiding conflict and use of force.
5. President Saleh has been trying to find a "way out" through some initiatives giving concessions and expressing his willingness to step down.  This attitude has helped him to keep supporters around him (members of the regime, these fearing the Unknown,  and these observing the revolution deviating from its own objectives).

People are trying to keep up with the situation.  Although many have already lost their jobs and others are badly affected by the current crisis, many others are still trying.

The regime is extending hands for negotiations, but the revolution powers are rejecting.  The past couple of Fridays were showdowns between the supporters of the regime and those against it.  It is becoming more clear that both sides are exhausting their effect limits.  No one is able to go further from here.

Of course the opposition thinks they still have ways to "osculate"  the situation, but the price might be too high. In order to get more gains the opposition needs to risk the lives of many Yemenis.  Without direct confrontation the opposition will not be able to get more support from the masses.

The regime, on the other hand, is trying to buy time.  People in many areas in the country are starting to feel the effects of this crisis.  They are starting to question the way out of it.

Without concessions and "good-will" from the political powers the situation in the country could become more complicated to solve.  The streets in Yemen are now split.  Even within a single household you find people against and pro the regime.  If this continues it could lead to conflict that could turn into a civil war.

People need to start realizing that Yemen is a country for all and that no one can claim it for him/herself.  This is time to think about a way out, not how to get more gains!

The following is a call that could be shared...
http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/yemen/

2011/04/03

نداء إبن اليمن - Children of Yemen Call


نداء إبن اليمن - Children of Yemen Call

As a Yemeni, I would like to call upon all Yemenis to gather around one goal, to
 serve our country, Yemen.
I promise to do my best to serve Yemen and I would like to call upon the government, the opposition parties, the youth in the sit-in squares, the elderly, the women, and all of those who were born in this country to forget about their differences for a while and work to find a solution to the current crisis.  I call upon:
- The government to make concessions and adhere to them.
- The opposition parties to consider the gains they have made and work for the future.
- The youth to look at the future and work continuously for change, by giving.
This country is for all of us.  We will build it, and we will work for that.
I would like to commit to this call and work for getting Yemen out of this crisis...



إضغط على الرابط


-- نداء إبن اليمن

أني كيمني أتعهد بموجب هذا النداء أن أعمل على خدمة وطني والقيام بكل ما من شأنه رفعة هذا البلد وإني لذلك:

أدعو كل اليمنيين، كل فرد، من العاملين في النظام، إلى احزاب المعارضة، إلى الشباب سواء الثائر منه في ساحات التغيير، أو الذي ينتظر، أدعو شيوخنا، أدعونا نساءنا، أدعو كل إنسان ولد على هذه الأرض أن يترك التعصب ويسعى لأيجاد حل للأزمة التي نعيشها.
الثورة قامت، والتغيير سنة الحياة، ونحن كيمنيين نتطلع للمستقبل الأفضل... فلنترك مصالحنا الشخصية الذاتية والأنانية ولنعمل ولو لمرة واحدة في سبيل مستقبل أمتنا
أدعو النظام: فلتقدم تنازلاتك ولتلتزم بتعهداتك
أدعو أحزاب المعارضة: فلترضى بما حققتيه من خلال ثورة الشباب ولتمضي نحو المستقبل
أدعو الشباب: فليتطلعوا للمستقبل وهو بين أيديهم وليكون سعينا للتغيير متواصل عبر البناء والعطاء

 ليبق الوطن لنا جميعاً، لنصنع جميعاً مستقبلاً زاهراً، لنضحي اليوم.. لا بد لنا أن نعطي اليوم .. أن نعمل اليوم...

 أنا كموقع على هذه النداء أتعهد على العمل الفوري بكل ما أوتيت من طاقة وجهد لأجل أبناء بلدي ولإخراج البلد من هذه الأزمة.....

.
" وقل أعملوا فيسرى الله عملكم ورسوله والمؤمنون"