Yemen, another Libya?
After more than two months since the start of the youth movement the picture of the situation in Yemen is becoming more blurry. It is not only the regime and the youth demanding its departure, it is much more.
Al-Islah, the most influential Islamic party officially declared a war on the regime. Al-Islah through its religious wing declared "holy war" against President Saleh. Al-Zandani, the party spiritual leader, declared this the dawn of the "Islamic Caliphate State". In a speech in the Tagheer Square in Sana'a on March 1, he asked supporters to continue their "Jihad" until the regime leaves (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nu9mZX3LdJU).
Two weeks after the speech of Al-Zandani more than 50 demonstrators were killed by gunmen while they were trying to demolish a wall established to prevent demonstrators from expanding their sit-in area. Following that Friday Ali Mohsen (one of the main figures of Saleh's regime- and a commander of one of the main divisions of the Yemeni Army) decided to "support the youth revolution" and send his troops to protect the demonstrators.
Ali Mohsen has been known for his support for Al-Islah Party for a long time. He provided them with land and funds to establish Al-Eman University among other sorts of support he has given the group. The defection of Ali Mohsen (half-brother of Saleh) is seen as a military coup by the Islamic party.
After the defection of Ali Mohsen tensions in Yemen rose dramatically. Mohsen's main camp is in the middle of Sana'a City. Military confrontation was very close with the Republican Guards under Ahemd, the sun of President Saleh.
Mohsen is not only a military commander. He is also one of the main political leaders. He had been the regime's main contact with the tribes, and he had tremendous influence in the appointment of many governments and officials.
A few days after the defection of Mohsen, the two sides found that a military confrontation was too costly. Since then Saleh's regime decided it is time to use the same weapon used by the opposition, the "street". Saleh was able to gather thousands of people in three consecutive Fridays. This move gave Saleh another reason to resist.
Apart from the Fridays show off of the opposition and the regime, there is another war. Saleh succeeded in convincing his tribesmen to go for a mediation effort with Mohsen. Apparently Mohsen decided to stop such efforts when his men fired on the mediation team killing two and injuring others. By tribal customs this act is considered an offense on the tribe. The tribes of Sanhan, among others, declared war on Mohsen.
In a separate incident, Mohsen's soldiers fired on a number of cars passing near his military camp while raising the pictures of President Saleh on Friday 8, 2011 killing two tribesmen.
In other parts of the country the situation is deteriorating rapidly. After Abyan and Shabwah (Al Qaeda), government forces surrendered to Hothi groups in Sadah, Al-Jawf. Al-Islah groups attacked Marib governorate which is now under their control.
The situation in Yemen is very similar to that of Libya. Although the main cities are still under government control, the mounting tension and inability of the regime, as well as the opposition to act could lead to a breakthrough of a civil war. Each side is using its last cards.
ليست هناك تعليقات:
إرسال تعليق