It has been about two months since the start of the uprising in Yemen. The revolution that was inspired by Tunisia and Egypt is quite different. The youth started their movement with the same demands of the Tunisian and Egyptian youth, to overthrew the regime. The demands seems legitimate given the failure of the regime to solve the problems of the country, and to meet the dreams of the young generation.
After this long period one needs to ask why has the youth movement failed to overthrew the regime in Yemen?. There are of course a number of reasons:
1. The youth movement, although popular, has lost its popularity a few weeks after it started. A number of factors contributed to this.
-First the youth movement was taken over (for the most part) by the (unpopular) opposition parties.
-Second, and after this long time, the movement has not been able to provide a convincing alternative to the regime with a clear plan and strategy (this is particularly important given the diverse composition of the oppositions powers, from the far right to the left).
-Third, the principals and values of the revolution were violated when unpopular (corrupt) figures joined the uprising with a "welcome" from the youth.
2. The youth movement continue to be a minority among the population of Yemen which is mainly rural. With the exception of tribesmen who were brought to Sana'a by Islah Party and its allies, the rural people have not contributed to the revolution.
3. Although the regime was hardly hit by the decision of Ali Mohsen, commander of one of the main Army units, to support the revolution, it also made people fear the possible break of a war within the Army.
4. The regime has learned from the experience of Tunisia and Egypt. The regime demonstrations, keeping low profile, and avoiding conflict and use of force.
5. President Saleh has been trying to find a "way out" through some initiatives giving concessions and expressing his willingness to step down. This attitude has helped him to keep supporters around him (members of the regime, these fearing the Unknown, and these observing the revolution deviating from its own objectives).
People are trying to keep up with the situation. Although many have already lost their jobs and others are badly affected by the current crisis, many others are still trying.
The regime is extending hands for negotiations, but the revolution powers are rejecting. The past couple of Fridays were showdowns between the supporters of the regime and those against it. It is becoming more clear that both sides are exhausting their effect limits. No one is able to go further from here.
Of course the opposition thinks they still have ways to "osculate" the situation, but the price might be too high. In order to get more gains the opposition needs to risk the lives of many Yemenis. Without direct confrontation the opposition will not be able to get more support from the masses.
The regime, on the other hand, is trying to buy time. People in many areas in the country are starting to feel the effects of this crisis. They are starting to question the way out of it.
Without concessions and "good-will" from the political powers the situation in the country could become more complicated to solve. The streets in Yemen are now split. Even within a single household you find people against and pro the regime. If this continues it could lead to conflict that could turn into a civil war.
People need to start realizing that Yemen is a country for all and that no one can claim it for him/herself. This is time to think about a way out, not how to get more gains!
The following is a call that could be shared...
http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/yemen/
ليست هناك تعليقات:
إرسال تعليق