Yemen, The Road to Total Disorder (1)

Yemen, The Road to Total Disorder (1)

 A couple of days ago, I was with a friend of mine, who happened to be American living in Yemen for a few years now.  Of course, the tragic crime in Al-Sabeen square was at the top of our talk.  We had a gathering in which we expected more than 20 people to show up, but only a few turned out.

In 2005, that is less than 7 years ago I had one of my longest trips in Yemen.  I was with my father, who was taking his first trip to Hadramout, and revisiting Aden after more than 50 years.

We left Sana’a on a Land Cruiser at about noon.  We took the road to Marib.  After a less than an hour, we stopped for lunch.  Then we continued to Marib, arriving before sunset at the famous Bilquis Hotel.  After a break, we went to watch the city at night.

The second day, we took a short trip to the Marib Dam, then hit the road to Sieyun.  In the road we were bothered by what we, then, saw as too many “security check-points”.  We spent a couple of days in Wadi Hadramout, visiting a number of tourist attractions.  Then again we hit the road to Mukalla.  A few days in Mukalla allowed us to see a few attractions and relax by the lovely beach.

In the road from Mukalla to Aden we passed a section of more than 50 KM that was in terrible condition and needed to be rehabilitated.  We saw some machinery but thought that the efforts were not enough to restore the roade.

We arrived in Aden in the afternoon and were ready to enjoy a lovely night.  My father, whose last visit was under the British rule more than 50 years ago put it this way “ Shame of them (former south Yemen regime), they just destroyed what was there.  They did not do nothing for over 30 years)….

During this long trip we had no worries about our security.  We travelled in our Land Cruiser fearing nothing, and carrying no weapon, whatsoever. 

My American friend experience is not different.  He went alone driving his car from Sana’a to Mahara, back to Sahbwah and Dhamar.  He hardly faced any trouble during this long trip….

Today, we are hardly able to move inside the Capital City, Sana’a.  As a Yemeni, of course I will avoid having a company of a foreigner.  Whenever possible I prefer to stay home.  I only move when it is necessary.

The story is just beginning.

A Nation for Sale

A Nation for Sale

In about a year from now most Yemenis were optimistic and enthusiastic about the prospects of change, and for a brighter future.  Change was the big title for Yemenis who are dreaming of a better life.  A life were justice prevails.  At that time the “change” meant bringing back the good values of people.  Values that were covered with rust and buried under tons of personal covets.

Truth, right, fairness, justice,.... and many good words have disappeared from our life in Yemen.   All we could hear is corruption, kidnapping, killing, theft,  and unjustice.  Yemenis were dreaming of changing all of that.  Tens of thousands of Yemenis joined the demonstrations, and many others were ready to support them.  

It seemed that people got fed up with the continuous deterioration, not just in their standard of living, but also in their own values and ethics.  Although everybody was contributing to the situation, there was no way out, and it seemed that a mass movement was the answer.

Day after day, the well known "youth movement" gathered support, and day after day the same movement's ideals eroded.  The masses were under tremendous media pressure and could not realize how the movement has lost its basic objectives.

The struggle became a power struggle.  The power sharing arrangement that was prevailing, was no longer acceptable to some partners who thought that they deserve more.  They took advantage of the "youth movement" and were able to monopolize it.  It was a chance that they could not miss.  The long-lived regime was not ready to give up.  In this seen the objectives of change took the back stage in a boiling theater.

The competition for the public continued between the regime and the opposition.  After a few weeks it became clear that no one is able to precede.  The last resort was the military confrontation.  The war started between the state and the opposing forces, and again there was a fine line that none of them could cross.

Many asked, and in away still puzzled about it, Why the regime was able to stand?.  The government was already weak before all of this started.  The authority of the government was only present in certain areas, and above all the government had hardly any financial resources after the blow up of Marib oil pipelines.  How did it happen?  and what kept the regime from collapsing?

On the other hand there was a tremendous support for the "youth movement", or that is how it appeared.  Why did the movement fail to win the battle? 

After all, one would wonder, how did the country hold together?.  The poor economy continued to function, and people continued to go about their daily life trying to secure their needs.  The government continued to pay salaries even at times when many people stopped paying taxes.

The "lousy" system continued to function and people were saved from the consequences of its collapse.  Apart from history, psychology of Yemenis, and the traditional structures that saved the country from dropping into a total ِchaos, how did the country sustain economically?  

Traditionally the government of Yemen has always resorted to the Gulf Countries.  Saudi Arabia in particular has been providing aid to the government for decades.  In critical times such as those of 2011, the neighbors must have put more money.

How about the opposition? How were they able to stand for months?  Were did they get their finances?  How did they finance thousands of people sitting in the streets, and of course chewing Qat!.

Islah, the head of the opposition, has its own big  "investments", but is that enough?.  Another source is the government itself that kept paying defected military division.  This is not enough.  The other money from those supporting the movement.  Local people, yes, but how much they could afford in crisis time.  Money was definitely coming from abroad, from those supporting the Yemen movement. Many noticed the exchange rate of the Yemeni Riyal going up at times a collapse was more logical.

So, values, good values, truth, justice, who cares?.  Change, yes, we have it!!!!

 

The political deal came.  The opposition, the regime, both had no choice.  Redistribution of power, yes, change, what?... It is sold...!!!

Go and Vote for it.

Game Over

Game Over

Playing is one of the things that accompany each of us throughout life.  Babies enjoy playing with their hands and legs, and as they grow up parents teach them new games.  When children learn how to play and start to enjoy playing parents put new rules and restrictions.  We want the child to know when it is a good time to play, how to observe the roles of the game, and when to stop.

As we grow up we think we know more about playing, and we think we are good players.  In many cases we are wrong.  Life is full of games that sometimes are not understood by us, even if we are part of them.

Last February thousands of Yemenis participated in what was then a nice game.  The game was expected to bring a necessary change to their country.  The game attracted more and more people who had dreamed of good future for them and their children.  People were still dreaming, and only a few of them started actually working for that dream.

Months had passed, and it seems the game is continuing.  What is happening?, how much time do we still need, do we know the roles?, Is the game over?....

 The dreams of people are no longer there.  The suffering made them dream of just last January. 

Losses are tremendous, and if these people do not realize that they have lost, this will create more and more suffering….. 

Game is over, can’t we realize?

The Victims

The Victims

After more than 4 months since the start of the crisis in Yemen things have deteriorated in the last couple of weeks to become an armed conflict.  A group of tribesmen loyal to the sons of Shiekh Abdulah Al-Ahmar (SAA) took over a number of government buildings including ministries, the official Yemen news agency (SABA), and the Water Authority.

After an initial response in which the house of SAA was targeted, President Saleh decided to have a ceasefire.  This ceasefire was apparently requested by Saudi Arabia in addition to a number of tribes’ leaders.  The mediation did not succeed and SAA’s tribesmen moved quickly after two days to occupy more government ministries including the Ministry of Education.

At that point the government forces started to use Special Forces to reclaim the government buildings.   The government forces succeeded in taking back the government buildings after heavy fighting.  The tribesmen moved to some residential buildings around the area of Al-Hasabah (where the main house of SAA is located) and in other areas of the city.

Friday has witnessed many serious developments.  After three days of fighting inside the Capital, the famous Friday payer gatherings of these pro the regime in Sabeen Square, and these against the regime in Siteen Street continued.  The number of people was the smallest in both Siteen Street and Sabeen Square since four monthgs.  The prayers ended peacefully.

One important thing to notice, a number of SAA fighters who were killed in the fighting in Hasaba were brought to Siteen Street where they were treated as martyrs! (Siteen Street is where the “revolutionists” hold their prayers every week).

After the prayers tribesmen were witnessed around the city of Sana’a and gun fires were heard in several areas.  It was another attempt of SAA fighters to spread chaos around the city.  

After a few hours the news came; the President was targeted by shells in the Nahdain Mosque inside the Presidential Palace during the Friday prayer.  The President, The Prime Minister, the Speaker of the Parliament, the Speaker of Shoura Council (a house of representatives), and two deputies of the Prime Ministers were badly injured in the attempted murder, and 7 guards were killed.

The satellite channel of SAA’s sons quickly reported the killing of the President.  Later the President gave a voice speech in which he talked about the accident and confirmed that he was well.

One should take note of a number of important details:

1. The events in Al-Hasabah were apparently a part of an overall scenario to take over the city of Sana’a, and probably take over the government.  Although some claim that the sons of SAA were targeted inside their home this cannot be true for a number of reasons; (a) the tribesmen took over government offices around the area, not only these beside the house of SAA, (b) the number of tribesmen was so large that they were actually able to take over a large number of government offices including the  Ministry of Trade, the SABA news agency, the Ministry of Tourism, the Water Authority, Yemeni Airlines compound, the Ministry of Local Authority, Land Registrar Authority, and parts of the Ministry of Interior. 

2. The forces of SAA used heavy weapons in their attacks including Lu missles and katyusha.

3. The forces of SAA tried to take over the airport and the official TV.

4.  Later the forces of SAA started their attacks in several parts of the city from houses they had rented earlier and equipped with weapons.

5. The attempted murder of President Saleh and other government leaders was the last step in the scenario to take over the rule of the country.

6. It was reported that the speaker in Siteen Street shouted “Allah Akbar” and added “there is an explosion inside the Presidential Palace” a few seconds after the attack.

Today, one of the leaders of the Islah Party (the Islamists party) gave President Saleh 24 hours to give his authorities to his deputy or face the formation of a “Transition Council”.

The “Youth Revolution” is now connected not only with corrupt people who are trying to escape any possible prosecution in the future, but also with gangsters who robbed and destroyed government offices, killed police and security people, and finally are working hard to complete a military coup to take power…..  

The victims are those young people who took to the streets looking for a better life and justice.  They were badly abused by corrupt people, the political elite, and the religious hardliners (who think they are “implementing the rule of God on earth”).   The victims are the people of Yemen who lost hope for a change that will improve their lives.

What is the future of Yemen among all these complications?



Confused!

When the youth movement started in early February 2011 most Yemenis were full of hope.  The hope for a change that will give them a chance to make a better life.  A chance to make justice prevail.  A chance to fight corruption and let those with better qualifications contribute to the future of the country.  For all of these hope thousands of people joined the movement that was gaining momentum day by day.

Later, a different group of people joined the movement.  A group that wanted to take advantage of the movement to gain political power.  This group include the opposition parties included in the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP)- the Islamic Islah Party, the Yemen Social Party, and a few smaller parties.  It also included some groups that are not recognized as political parties, but had been fighting against the government, namely the Houthis and Al-Qaeda.  

The third group that joined the protests were a number of the hard liners of Saleh's regime.  These who have been taking advantage of the regime for decades but felt it is time to jump the ship before it sinks.

The opposition parties do not have the support of the public and they do not have agendas for the future of the country.  Although they formed a coalition against Saleh's regime, they have more differences than agreements.  Over the past period they demonstrated to Yemenis that they will not be able to role a country with so much diversity.  Each one has a single focus: Islah want's to have an "Islamic Caliph" state, Yemen Social Party wants to have a Socialist regime.  These two main players are seen as fundamental movements that will not be able to accommodate others. 

The "poor" youth have continued their movement, which is now 4 months old.  They were supported financially by different groups including the JMP, but have lost both their values and goals.  Although their main objective continues to be "to demolish Saleh's regime", they have lost the support of the public that see no value in a "revolution" that is not bringing justice for all.

One can can immediately spot the confusion among the people in Tagheer Square (university).  The following picture shows Sadam Hussien, Al-Hamdi (a former President of Yemen who came after a coup against the only civilian president), and Shamlan (a socialist, and candidate for president who ran against President Saleh in 2006)..... The picture speaks for itself.... 

The picture  is an example of the confusion among the youth who are using symbols of dictatorship for a people-revolution......

Freedom of Speech

For Yemenis freedom of speech is not necessarily one of the priorities.  It is not the government that keeps them from expressing themselves freely, but also traditions, values, the tribe, the community, among other things.  In this part of the world a word is more than just a combination of few letters.  

Before 1990 Yemenis  were subject to controlled media.  There were almost no private media and even imported media was subject to strict censorship.  Since then things have very much changes.  There are hundreds of local newspapers and publication most of which are private.  The change in 1990 was like a shock to the conservative society.

Initially those who were working for the public media established their own newspapers, but later many people entered this "market".  Many of the new newspapers are managed by people who want to make money.  They do not have any journalism background.  They established many "yellow" journals.

On the other hand political parties established their own newspapers and media tools.  Their objective is to promote their ideas among the public.

In the early 1990 most of the media were somehow guarded by unwritten controls, but very soon these controls disappeared in favor of political and business interests.  This has affected the culture of people that gives high value for "the word"... 

The media was not able to play a positive role in educating people and helping raise awareness, but was able to "make stories" rather than "report stories".  Most of the stories about corruption, for example, were not taken seriously by the public and authorities.  There is no doubt that the media played a major role in the current crisis in Yemen.

The Yemeni government decided earlier to turn a deaf-ear towards what is on the media.  With few exceptions, journalists are free to write whatever they want.

In the current crisis the media is playing a big role.  There is a war between pro-regime media and opposition media.  The opposition media is trying to "get the support of the public to the change movement", on the other hand, the pro-regime media is trying to get the trust of the public.

The freedom of speech has changed how people think in Yemen.  It has probably changed the value of  a "word" in the mind of Yemenis, but not for all of us!

In an unprecedented indecent that happened yesterday, Al-Omaisi, a local poet from Al-Qafr (Ibb) who is famous for praising President Saleh, was kidnapped in Taiz street in Sana'a.  His tongue was cut off.  The efforts to rescue him failed.....

This dogmatic act cannot be left without punishment.....

The Yemeni Game

Most observers, including Yemenis, expected a frightening scenario for Yemen.  They expected civil war at the beginning of the crisis that is now 13 weeks old.  Most Yemenis prepared themselves for the worst during the first week of the crisis.  They stacked food items, reduced their movement outside their homes, and also prepared their guns among other measures they took to protect themselves!

In first few weeks many people decided to keep their children home, while others closed their businesses or reduced the operating hours.  Foreign companies sent their expats outside the country and some gave their employees an open leave.  Many Yemeni businesses also started to lay off some of their employees.

Now, after 13 weeks things are not so bad.  Food items and other basic needs are still readily available.  There are some difficulties in securing home-gas and more blackouts than usual, but the situation is still bearable.

Children are going to school normally.  Many people are going back to their normal routine and businesses are operating until late hours at night.  The streets are almost as crowded as in early February.  The government's strategy to reduce the presence of security forces in the city did not affect the security situation in the city.  

The seceding of Ali-Mohsen and his forces raised more fears about the situation.  It has, undoubtedly, made it more difficult to resolve the crisis, but since then ( March 21) the experience has shown that all parties are very careful about the use of force.

The police forces are still guarding Zubeiry street, having some special equipment for the purpose of dispersing demonstrators.  On the other side of the street, particularly in Sixty-Meter road you sometime notice  soldiers that belong to Ali Mohsen.  There was only a couple of incidents of clashes between these forces and police forces right after Mohasen announcement.

The past ten days were very peaceful in Sana'a.  There were no demonstrations and the tension has gone down tremendously.

The initiative design by the Gulf countries to resolve the crisis did not go through after some dispute about the formalities.  This is on the surface, but in fact none of the two sides was ready to implement it.

Ironically, the "youth movement" and the demands for change were very much popular at the begging of the crisis.  President Saleh has lost a lot of support even from his own party.  The "change movement" was very popular among the majority of people.  The pro-regime people were very much "scared" to announce their position.  The ruling party (PGC) had lost the ability to act.  Saleh was put in the corner and could only give concessions, one after another.

The concessions given by Saleh were "not good enough" for the opposition and change movement to accept.  They were rejected immediately.  Both the opposition and the youth movement were firm, "no negotiations with President Saleh and his regime".

Four weeks ago Saleh decided to call his supporters to go to the streets.  One Friday, after another, an increasing number of Yemenis are demonstrating in support for Saleh.  At the same time, the change movement have lost a lot of its momentum.  A number of factors contributed to that:
1. The filthy language used by Saleh opponents in the media and public has backfired.  Many Yemenis this against their cultural values.  At the same time, the official media of Saleh was able to regain some trust from the public.
2. The seceding of Mohsen, among other former regime officials has weakened the change movement that lost sympathy from the public.
3. A number of opposition leaders failed to present an "alternative" to the public.  In their media speeches they    did not give a "plan for the future".  Al-Biedh, Basindwah, Qahtan, Zaid, and Hamid Al-Ahmar all raised more fears about the future of the country and the possibility of seceding of the south.
4. Some of the opposition parties started to use its members to intimidate the public.  They used speakers of the mosques, they tried to force people into strikes, and harassed, and in some cases physically attacked, those who do not agree with them.
5. The "no negotiation" attitude of the opposition and youth movement was increasingly seen by the public, who would like to see an end to this crisis, as an acceptable attitude.

The Yemeni streets are split these days.  Saleh supporters are now out in the public, and those against him have lost much of the sympathy and support.  Opposition parties were not able to take advantage of the public support that reached its peak maybe in week 4 of the crisis.  The youth seem to have no strategy or plan.

The opposition parties are in difficult situation.  If they eventually accept a political settlement that will ensure fair elections, they do not have the required support to rule, and if they refuse they will eventually lose more supporters.  An alternative is to use the military!

The average Yemeni citizen is the one who stands to lose his/her job.  For how long can these average Yemenis stand?