Yemen, The Road to Total Disorder (3)

Yemen, The Road to Total Disorder (3)

 Coalition Government:

Government is divided between the ex- opposition parties and President Saleh’s Party the (PGC).  Money, media, and security is taken by the ex-opposition.  The PGC is controlling the foreign affairs and part of the military ( part of the military – leaded by General Ali Mohsen- have defected since March 2012 and is not under the control of the President since then).

Over the past six months the priority of the government has been to secure funds to overcome the fears of collapse of the economy.  They have been successful and the foreign support has improved the economic condition, or at least stopped further deterioration.

In other areas the government has not been able to achieve much.  Electricity supply is still not stable and electricity is on less than 50% of the time.  Other services have either deteriorated or have not witnessed any progress, including trash collection and water supply.

Fuel supplies have improved in the past few weeks.  The government decided to reduce the price of Gasoline and add the cost to Diesel, the main fuel for the poorer farmers.  The government seems to be concerned about pleasing the more influential urban population.

Security wise the situation has further deteriorated.  Gunmen are running around the cities, robberies are common, and the feeling of security is diminishing especially after the tragic killing of security personnel in Sabeen Square.  The split of power is giving a sense of uncertainty and the recent crimes that go un-noticed by authorities further increase uncertainty.

The situation in Taiz has improved after the appointment of the new governor, but other areas of the country are experiencing more difficulties including Aden, Abyan, Lahej, Hajjah, and Al-Baydha.  Most of the main roads around the country are not accessible or at least not secure.

 The government media is controlled by the ex-opposition parties who were able to shift its focus in the past few months.  The need for “justice” and redistribution of resources is the main theme, and criticizing the “previous” regime is used to keep people under control.

Military and the Power Struggle:

Up to March 2012, President Saleh was keeping control of the military and security in the country with the exception of the defected First Armored Division lead by Ali Mohsen, and the areas controlled by Al-Hothi in the north.  There were of course a number of “hot” spots, but they were not affecting the overall situation.

Exactly one year from now President Saleh and country top leaders survived an attempted murder.  At that point, it is believed that Saleh was in a position to retaliate and hit his opponents.  Many believed that he continued to “rule” the country for more than three months from the hospital in Saudi Arabia.  He decided not to use force.  At that point the defected military division was too weak to survive any attack.  All other security arms of the regime were still active including intelligence agencies.

Saleh is “officially” out of the game, but the picture is more ambiguous.  In order to satisfy the ex-opposition parties President Hadi decided to replace a number of the military leaders who are related to President Saleh.  The recent attack on the security personnel in Al-Sabeen Square, during the preparation of the celebrations of the National Day, in a space that is under the control of the President’s Guards, puts a lot of questions about the wisdom of Hadi’s decisions.

The ex-opposition parties are counting on the defected military division, which now holds some increasing “legitimacy”.  They also count on the Minister of Interior, who directs security forces, although one of Saleh’s relatives still holds the main position in the security forces.

The Republican Guards (RG), led by President Saleh’s sun, are still the main force in the military.  The RG were not directly involved in the political conflict, except when they were attacked by pro Islah (Islamist Party) supporters in their attempt to control Sana’a Airport.  The ex-opposition parties believe that Saleh’s sun should leave his post.

Away from military we find a number of other players.  In the north Al-Houthi (a Shite group) is controlling Sadd’a Governorate and parts of Al-Jawf.  In the south, Al-Qaeda supporters are controlling parts of Abyan, receiving support from those who sympathize with their ideology in Yemen and outside, including Somalia.

Tribes have big influence on the game in Yemen.  Currently they are split.  Many tribe leaders are still loyal to the PGC and continue to support it.  Others had detached themselves from Saleh’s party, and followed the “ex-opposition” parties, mainly the Islamist party.  Most tribe leaders have developed strong connections to economic opportunities in urban areas, and thus could easily switch sides.  Their influence is almost neutral because they are not expected to take part in any military conflict.   

Tribes related to Sheikh Al-Ahmar Sons, however, have taken, and are ready to take part in military conflict.  They are believed to be driven by temporary benefits and they are expected to continue their support as long as finances keep flowing.

Yemen, The Road to Total Disorder (2)

Yemen, The Road to Total Disorder (2)

Rape:

Three weeks ago the media overlooked one of the most tragic incidents, I claim, in the history of Yemen.  A tragic crime that shows how the values and culture of Yemen have negatively been affected, especially over the past year or so.  A 13-year old girl sent by her family to buy bread in Aser Zone (less than 200 meters from the residence of President Hadi) was taken and raped by 7 youngsters.  The poor girl was released just to drop dead at the door of her home.  One journalist took a note of the crime and organized a demonstration to the general attorney office.  Most people did not hear about this crime.  People are “busy” by the media who is only concerned with the political game.

Robbery: 

just a few examples!

-          March: A call from a friend.  He was travelling from Sana’a to Ibb.  He was stopped by gunmen, asked to leave the care with his family.  They took everything, including a large suFm of money, and then allowed him to leave. 

-          April: 2 couples, from the same family.  They spent their honeymoon in Hodiedah City.  They headed back to Sana’a on their car.  It is common these days to be stopped for around 20 check points, tribesmen, military, security... whatever.  This time the gunmen asked them to leave the car.  What happened after, the four people found dead after their car jumped down the hill.

-          May: Where, off Iran Street.  I was outside the gate of my house.  A man came, pulled me, by force.  I resisted and shouted.  My husband came out, I was rescued.  The man ran away!

Kidnapping:

For many when they think about kidnapping in Yemen, they think of adventure.  Well, not anymore.  Things have changed.  The recent kidnapping of a Spanish diplomat who disappeared on the way to the airport is just one example.  He was found shot and dead at one of the mountains in Sana’a.  The Hungarian Ambassador was also injured on a shooting targeting his car also in Sana’a.

Over the past two years kidnapping is not only targeting foreigners, but increasingly Yemenis.  Tens of Yemenis were abducted over the past twelve months for various reasons, including the kidnapping of women and children.

Traffic:

About 18 months ago the government decided that I wanted to enforce the use of safety seat belts in the cars and ban the use of mobile phones by drivers.  It issued a law with very high fines to be paid by violators.  At that time it was definitely not the most urgent priority to improve traffic, but it worked.

Today, thousands of unlicensed motor bikes and cars are running throughout the country.  In Sana’a, where motorbikes were banned, thousands of them are running unlicensed, and tens of un-tagged cars carrying gunmen are harassing people who do not clear the way for them quickly, including poor traffic police and military checkpoints.

You could park wherever you want, drive the wrong way, ignore the traffic police signal, and go on your way un-asked.  Not because you are driving a Porsche, or some luxury car, no, everybody could do it these days.  It is very common to see a driver shouting at the traffic policeman or arguing with him.

Filthy streets are now the role rather than the exception.  Trash is common, in the middle islands, and throughout the streets.  Shops and street vendors are free to use the sidewalks, and even the streets as a display or storage area, obstructing traffic.

Care for yourself, and avoid conflict.  This is the general rule.

Baltajia and Shabab:

Baltajia is a new word introduced to Yemen, or rather imported from Egypt.  It refers to people who are paid to enforce something against the will of others.  It was attached to a group of people (mostly tribesmen) who were supporters of President Saleh.  They confronted the anti-regime demonstrations.  Now after more than a year, there are still large groups of this type.  Initially it was believed that they were paid by President Saleh (or rather the government itself).  Now it is not clear how they are “paid”.  Many of these stay in tents in Tahrir Square, the center of Sana’a City.

Equivalent, is the “Shabab”, literally the youth.  People who went against the regime, demonstrated and established sit ins in a number of streets, especially the ring road (Da’ery Street).  These people initially established tents.  Now they have built more durable settlements.  They usually use them for Qat Chewing.  Many were also able to earn money by renting them to street vendors, repairs shops, or the alike.  These people are “paid” by donations from those with “sympathy” to the “cause”.  Most of the funding is believed to be coming from “external” sources.

Both groups “Shabab and Baltajia” are supporting a “cause”, are mobilized by political rivals, and are paid.  Both groups occupy large areas of public streets, with “Shabab” actually occupying a street that is more than 2 KM long.  Baltajia are protecting themselves.  You can hardly find any security presence in their area even after Saleh left.  Shabab, on the other hand, are protected by military and heavy armored machines. 

In principle, both are violating the law and the rights of people, obstructing public streets, harming the well-being of people by killing economic activity in the areas and jeopardizing health.  The coalition government has been trying to get rid of the sit in in Tahrir Square, but nothing has been done about the occupation of Da’ery street.  It seems that the ex-oposition parties are keeping  "Baltajia/shabab" as a tool in the upcoming "national dialogue" and maybe for other purposes...

Yemen, The Road to Total Disorder (1)

Yemen, The Road to Total Disorder (1)

 A couple of days ago, I was with a friend of mine, who happened to be American living in Yemen for a few years now.  Of course, the tragic crime in Al-Sabeen square was at the top of our talk.  We had a gathering in which we expected more than 20 people to show up, but only a few turned out.

In 2005, that is less than 7 years ago I had one of my longest trips in Yemen.  I was with my father, who was taking his first trip to Hadramout, and revisiting Aden after more than 50 years.

We left Sana’a on a Land Cruiser at about noon.  We took the road to Marib.  After a less than an hour, we stopped for lunch.  Then we continued to Marib, arriving before sunset at the famous Bilquis Hotel.  After a break, we went to watch the city at night.

The second day, we took a short trip to the Marib Dam, then hit the road to Sieyun.  In the road we were bothered by what we, then, saw as too many “security check-points”.  We spent a couple of days in Wadi Hadramout, visiting a number of tourist attractions.  Then again we hit the road to Mukalla.  A few days in Mukalla allowed us to see a few attractions and relax by the lovely beach.

In the road from Mukalla to Aden we passed a section of more than 50 KM that was in terrible condition and needed to be rehabilitated.  We saw some machinery but thought that the efforts were not enough to restore the roade.

We arrived in Aden in the afternoon and were ready to enjoy a lovely night.  My father, whose last visit was under the British rule more than 50 years ago put it this way “ Shame of them (former south Yemen regime), they just destroyed what was there.  They did not do nothing for over 30 years)….

During this long trip we had no worries about our security.  We travelled in our Land Cruiser fearing nothing, and carrying no weapon, whatsoever. 

My American friend experience is not different.  He went alone driving his car from Sana’a to Mahara, back to Sahbwah and Dhamar.  He hardly faced any trouble during this long trip….

Today, we are hardly able to move inside the Capital City, Sana’a.  As a Yemeni, of course I will avoid having a company of a foreigner.  Whenever possible I prefer to stay home.  I only move when it is necessary.

The story is just beginning.

A Nation for Sale

A Nation for Sale

In about a year from now most Yemenis were optimistic and enthusiastic about the prospects of change, and for a brighter future.  Change was the big title for Yemenis who are dreaming of a better life.  A life were justice prevails.  At that time the “change” meant bringing back the good values of people.  Values that were covered with rust and buried under tons of personal covets.

Truth, right, fairness, justice,.... and many good words have disappeared from our life in Yemen.   All we could hear is corruption, kidnapping, killing, theft,  and unjustice.  Yemenis were dreaming of changing all of that.  Tens of thousands of Yemenis joined the demonstrations, and many others were ready to support them.  

It seemed that people got fed up with the continuous deterioration, not just in their standard of living, but also in their own values and ethics.  Although everybody was contributing to the situation, there was no way out, and it seemed that a mass movement was the answer.

Day after day, the well known "youth movement" gathered support, and day after day the same movement's ideals eroded.  The masses were under tremendous media pressure and could not realize how the movement has lost its basic objectives.

The struggle became a power struggle.  The power sharing arrangement that was prevailing, was no longer acceptable to some partners who thought that they deserve more.  They took advantage of the "youth movement" and were able to monopolize it.  It was a chance that they could not miss.  The long-lived regime was not ready to give up.  In this seen the objectives of change took the back stage in a boiling theater.

The competition for the public continued between the regime and the opposition.  After a few weeks it became clear that no one is able to precede.  The last resort was the military confrontation.  The war started between the state and the opposing forces, and again there was a fine line that none of them could cross.

Many asked, and in away still puzzled about it, Why the regime was able to stand?.  The government was already weak before all of this started.  The authority of the government was only present in certain areas, and above all the government had hardly any financial resources after the blow up of Marib oil pipelines.  How did it happen?  and what kept the regime from collapsing?

On the other hand there was a tremendous support for the "youth movement", or that is how it appeared.  Why did the movement fail to win the battle? 

After all, one would wonder, how did the country hold together?.  The poor economy continued to function, and people continued to go about their daily life trying to secure their needs.  The government continued to pay salaries even at times when many people stopped paying taxes.

The "lousy" system continued to function and people were saved from the consequences of its collapse.  Apart from history, psychology of Yemenis, and the traditional structures that saved the country from dropping into a total ِchaos, how did the country sustain economically?  

Traditionally the government of Yemen has always resorted to the Gulf Countries.  Saudi Arabia in particular has been providing aid to the government for decades.  In critical times such as those of 2011, the neighbors must have put more money.

How about the opposition? How were they able to stand for months?  Were did they get their finances?  How did they finance thousands of people sitting in the streets, and of course chewing Qat!.

Islah, the head of the opposition, has its own big  "investments", but is that enough?.  Another source is the government itself that kept paying defected military division.  This is not enough.  The other money from those supporting the movement.  Local people, yes, but how much they could afford in crisis time.  Money was definitely coming from abroad, from those supporting the Yemen movement. Many noticed the exchange rate of the Yemeni Riyal going up at times a collapse was more logical.

So, values, good values, truth, justice, who cares?.  Change, yes, we have it!!!!

 

The political deal came.  The opposition, the regime, both had no choice.  Redistribution of power, yes, change, what?... It is sold...!!!

Go and Vote for it.

Game Over

Game Over

Playing is one of the things that accompany each of us throughout life.  Babies enjoy playing with their hands and legs, and as they grow up parents teach them new games.  When children learn how to play and start to enjoy playing parents put new rules and restrictions.  We want the child to know when it is a good time to play, how to observe the roles of the game, and when to stop.

As we grow up we think we know more about playing, and we think we are good players.  In many cases we are wrong.  Life is full of games that sometimes are not understood by us, even if we are part of them.

Last February thousands of Yemenis participated in what was then a nice game.  The game was expected to bring a necessary change to their country.  The game attracted more and more people who had dreamed of good future for them and their children.  People were still dreaming, and only a few of them started actually working for that dream.

Months had passed, and it seems the game is continuing.  What is happening?, how much time do we still need, do we know the roles?, Is the game over?....

 The dreams of people are no longer there.  The suffering made them dream of just last January. 

Losses are tremendous, and if these people do not realize that they have lost, this will create more and more suffering….. 

Game is over, can’t we realize?

The Victims

The Victims

After more than 4 months since the start of the crisis in Yemen things have deteriorated in the last couple of weeks to become an armed conflict.  A group of tribesmen loyal to the sons of Shiekh Abdulah Al-Ahmar (SAA) took over a number of government buildings including ministries, the official Yemen news agency (SABA), and the Water Authority.

After an initial response in which the house of SAA was targeted, President Saleh decided to have a ceasefire.  This ceasefire was apparently requested by Saudi Arabia in addition to a number of tribes’ leaders.  The mediation did not succeed and SAA’s tribesmen moved quickly after two days to occupy more government ministries including the Ministry of Education.

At that point the government forces started to use Special Forces to reclaim the government buildings.   The government forces succeeded in taking back the government buildings after heavy fighting.  The tribesmen moved to some residential buildings around the area of Al-Hasabah (where the main house of SAA is located) and in other areas of the city.

Friday has witnessed many serious developments.  After three days of fighting inside the Capital, the famous Friday payer gatherings of these pro the regime in Sabeen Square, and these against the regime in Siteen Street continued.  The number of people was the smallest in both Siteen Street and Sabeen Square since four monthgs.  The prayers ended peacefully.

One important thing to notice, a number of SAA fighters who were killed in the fighting in Hasaba were brought to Siteen Street where they were treated as martyrs! (Siteen Street is where the “revolutionists” hold their prayers every week).

After the prayers tribesmen were witnessed around the city of Sana’a and gun fires were heard in several areas.  It was another attempt of SAA fighters to spread chaos around the city.  

After a few hours the news came; the President was targeted by shells in the Nahdain Mosque inside the Presidential Palace during the Friday prayer.  The President, The Prime Minister, the Speaker of the Parliament, the Speaker of Shoura Council (a house of representatives), and two deputies of the Prime Ministers were badly injured in the attempted murder, and 7 guards were killed.

The satellite channel of SAA’s sons quickly reported the killing of the President.  Later the President gave a voice speech in which he talked about the accident and confirmed that he was well.

One should take note of a number of important details:

1. The events in Al-Hasabah were apparently a part of an overall scenario to take over the city of Sana’a, and probably take over the government.  Although some claim that the sons of SAA were targeted inside their home this cannot be true for a number of reasons; (a) the tribesmen took over government offices around the area, not only these beside the house of SAA, (b) the number of tribesmen was so large that they were actually able to take over a large number of government offices including the  Ministry of Trade, the SABA news agency, the Ministry of Tourism, the Water Authority, Yemeni Airlines compound, the Ministry of Local Authority, Land Registrar Authority, and parts of the Ministry of Interior. 

2. The forces of SAA used heavy weapons in their attacks including Lu missles and katyusha.

3. The forces of SAA tried to take over the airport and the official TV.

4.  Later the forces of SAA started their attacks in several parts of the city from houses they had rented earlier and equipped with weapons.

5. The attempted murder of President Saleh and other government leaders was the last step in the scenario to take over the rule of the country.

6. It was reported that the speaker in Siteen Street shouted “Allah Akbar” and added “there is an explosion inside the Presidential Palace” a few seconds after the attack.

Today, one of the leaders of the Islah Party (the Islamists party) gave President Saleh 24 hours to give his authorities to his deputy or face the formation of a “Transition Council”.

The “Youth Revolution” is now connected not only with corrupt people who are trying to escape any possible prosecution in the future, but also with gangsters who robbed and destroyed government offices, killed police and security people, and finally are working hard to complete a military coup to take power…..  

The victims are those young people who took to the streets looking for a better life and justice.  They were badly abused by corrupt people, the political elite, and the religious hardliners (who think they are “implementing the rule of God on earth”).   The victims are the people of Yemen who lost hope for a change that will improve their lives.

What is the future of Yemen among all these complications?



Confused!

When the youth movement started in early February 2011 most Yemenis were full of hope.  The hope for a change that will give them a chance to make a better life.  A chance to make justice prevail.  A chance to fight corruption and let those with better qualifications contribute to the future of the country.  For all of these hope thousands of people joined the movement that was gaining momentum day by day.

Later, a different group of people joined the movement.  A group that wanted to take advantage of the movement to gain political power.  This group include the opposition parties included in the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP)- the Islamic Islah Party, the Yemen Social Party, and a few smaller parties.  It also included some groups that are not recognized as political parties, but had been fighting against the government, namely the Houthis and Al-Qaeda.  

The third group that joined the protests were a number of the hard liners of Saleh's regime.  These who have been taking advantage of the regime for decades but felt it is time to jump the ship before it sinks.

The opposition parties do not have the support of the public and they do not have agendas for the future of the country.  Although they formed a coalition against Saleh's regime, they have more differences than agreements.  Over the past period they demonstrated to Yemenis that they will not be able to role a country with so much diversity.  Each one has a single focus: Islah want's to have an "Islamic Caliph" state, Yemen Social Party wants to have a Socialist regime.  These two main players are seen as fundamental movements that will not be able to accommodate others. 

The "poor" youth have continued their movement, which is now 4 months old.  They were supported financially by different groups including the JMP, but have lost both their values and goals.  Although their main objective continues to be "to demolish Saleh's regime", they have lost the support of the public that see no value in a "revolution" that is not bringing justice for all.

One can can immediately spot the confusion among the people in Tagheer Square (university).  The following picture shows Sadam Hussien, Al-Hamdi (a former President of Yemen who came after a coup against the only civilian president), and Shamlan (a socialist, and candidate for president who ran against President Saleh in 2006)..... The picture speaks for itself.... 

The picture  is an example of the confusion among the youth who are using symbols of dictatorship for a people-revolution......

Freedom of Speech

For Yemenis freedom of speech is not necessarily one of the priorities.  It is not the government that keeps them from expressing themselves freely, but also traditions, values, the tribe, the community, among other things.  In this part of the world a word is more than just a combination of few letters.  

Before 1990 Yemenis  were subject to controlled media.  There were almost no private media and even imported media was subject to strict censorship.  Since then things have very much changes.  There are hundreds of local newspapers and publication most of which are private.  The change in 1990 was like a shock to the conservative society.

Initially those who were working for the public media established their own newspapers, but later many people entered this "market".  Many of the new newspapers are managed by people who want to make money.  They do not have any journalism background.  They established many "yellow" journals.

On the other hand political parties established their own newspapers and media tools.  Their objective is to promote their ideas among the public.

In the early 1990 most of the media were somehow guarded by unwritten controls, but very soon these controls disappeared in favor of political and business interests.  This has affected the culture of people that gives high value for "the word"... 

The media was not able to play a positive role in educating people and helping raise awareness, but was able to "make stories" rather than "report stories".  Most of the stories about corruption, for example, were not taken seriously by the public and authorities.  There is no doubt that the media played a major role in the current crisis in Yemen.

The Yemeni government decided earlier to turn a deaf-ear towards what is on the media.  With few exceptions, journalists are free to write whatever they want.

In the current crisis the media is playing a big role.  There is a war between pro-regime media and opposition media.  The opposition media is trying to "get the support of the public to the change movement", on the other hand, the pro-regime media is trying to get the trust of the public.

The freedom of speech has changed how people think in Yemen.  It has probably changed the value of  a "word" in the mind of Yemenis, but not for all of us!

In an unprecedented indecent that happened yesterday, Al-Omaisi, a local poet from Al-Qafr (Ibb) who is famous for praising President Saleh, was kidnapped in Taiz street in Sana'a.  His tongue was cut off.  The efforts to rescue him failed.....

This dogmatic act cannot be left without punishment.....

The Yemeni Game

Most observers, including Yemenis, expected a frightening scenario for Yemen.  They expected civil war at the beginning of the crisis that is now 13 weeks old.  Most Yemenis prepared themselves for the worst during the first week of the crisis.  They stacked food items, reduced their movement outside their homes, and also prepared their guns among other measures they took to protect themselves!

In first few weeks many people decided to keep their children home, while others closed their businesses or reduced the operating hours.  Foreign companies sent their expats outside the country and some gave their employees an open leave.  Many Yemeni businesses also started to lay off some of their employees.

Now, after 13 weeks things are not so bad.  Food items and other basic needs are still readily available.  There are some difficulties in securing home-gas and more blackouts than usual, but the situation is still bearable.

Children are going to school normally.  Many people are going back to their normal routine and businesses are operating until late hours at night.  The streets are almost as crowded as in early February.  The government's strategy to reduce the presence of security forces in the city did not affect the security situation in the city.  

The seceding of Ali-Mohsen and his forces raised more fears about the situation.  It has, undoubtedly, made it more difficult to resolve the crisis, but since then ( March 21) the experience has shown that all parties are very careful about the use of force.

The police forces are still guarding Zubeiry street, having some special equipment for the purpose of dispersing demonstrators.  On the other side of the street, particularly in Sixty-Meter road you sometime notice  soldiers that belong to Ali Mohsen.  There was only a couple of incidents of clashes between these forces and police forces right after Mohasen announcement.

The past ten days were very peaceful in Sana'a.  There were no demonstrations and the tension has gone down tremendously.

The initiative design by the Gulf countries to resolve the crisis did not go through after some dispute about the formalities.  This is on the surface, but in fact none of the two sides was ready to implement it.

Ironically, the "youth movement" and the demands for change were very much popular at the begging of the crisis.  President Saleh has lost a lot of support even from his own party.  The "change movement" was very popular among the majority of people.  The pro-regime people were very much "scared" to announce their position.  The ruling party (PGC) had lost the ability to act.  Saleh was put in the corner and could only give concessions, one after another.

The concessions given by Saleh were "not good enough" for the opposition and change movement to accept.  They were rejected immediately.  Both the opposition and the youth movement were firm, "no negotiations with President Saleh and his regime".

Four weeks ago Saleh decided to call his supporters to go to the streets.  One Friday, after another, an increasing number of Yemenis are demonstrating in support for Saleh.  At the same time, the change movement have lost a lot of its momentum.  A number of factors contributed to that:
1. The filthy language used by Saleh opponents in the media and public has backfired.  Many Yemenis this against their cultural values.  At the same time, the official media of Saleh was able to regain some trust from the public.
2. The seceding of Mohsen, among other former regime officials has weakened the change movement that lost sympathy from the public.
3. A number of opposition leaders failed to present an "alternative" to the public.  In their media speeches they    did not give a "plan for the future".  Al-Biedh, Basindwah, Qahtan, Zaid, and Hamid Al-Ahmar all raised more fears about the future of the country and the possibility of seceding of the south.
4. Some of the opposition parties started to use its members to intimidate the public.  They used speakers of the mosques, they tried to force people into strikes, and harassed, and in some cases physically attacked, those who do not agree with them.
5. The "no negotiation" attitude of the opposition and youth movement was increasingly seen by the public, who would like to see an end to this crisis, as an acceptable attitude.

The Yemeni streets are split these days.  Saleh supporters are now out in the public, and those against him have lost much of the sympathy and support.  Opposition parties were not able to take advantage of the public support that reached its peak maybe in week 4 of the crisis.  The youth seem to have no strategy or plan.

The opposition parties are in difficult situation.  If they eventually accept a political settlement that will ensure fair elections, they do not have the required support to rule, and if they refuse they will eventually lose more supporters.  An alternative is to use the military!

The average Yemeni citizen is the one who stands to lose his/her job.  For how long can these average Yemenis stand?


  

Demonstrations In Yemen

Given the current crisis in Yemen and the attention given by the media to events in Yemen, I find many amazing things are are not reflected in the media.  The media is mainly concerned about the "plot" and not many of the important things that impact the daily life of Yemenis.....

At the beginning of this crisis there had been a lot of fears that a civil war would immediately breakout.  Yemenis have weapons in their position including fire arms, and even before the current crisis, there were a lot of conflicts in which fire arms were used.  Disputes about land is one of the most important causes for conflicts.  In addition a number of groups use arms to pressure the government either to get money or other privileges.

In the first few weeks people were gathering weapons, and getting ready to "fight" and protect their properties against the "tribes" who will come to rob Sana'a.  President Saleh's meetings with the tribes around Sana'a were mostly interpreted as a preparation for the intended raid on Sana'a.

It became clear that the government was aware of the fact that any armed conflict will actually backfire.  The government decided to loosen its grip.  At the same time anti-government movement, including the youth, the opposition parties, and the defector Ali Mohsen and his forces followed a similar strategy.

Although there have been some exceptions, the demonstrations are generally peaceful. Demonstrators are usually dispersed using the common tools like tear gas and water.  Police forces are only equipped with sticks and shields, no fire arms.

I  have witnessed a number of demonstrations in the recent days in Sana'a.  The new "pro Saleh demonstrations" are usually running smoothly throughout the city.  A growing number is participating in these demonstrations as the crisis continues.  Many people stand to watch and picture these demonstrations.
 (pro Saled demonstration, April 19, 2011)

The anti regime demonstrations are different.  They usually originate from the sit-in square near Sana'a University.  Although there have been only a few demonstrations over the past 2 months, the intensity of demonstrations increased since negotiations started between government and the opposition parties.

Here are some observations related to anti-regime demonstrations:
1. Sunday April 17, 2011: I came across a demonstration that was able, for the first time to cross Zubiery Street.  A few thousand people (2000-3000) were going into Al-Jeria Street.  They were shouting slogans against President Saleh and the regime.  While passing they would paint slogans on the walls.  A number of residents were gathering to watch them.  They went down the street and stopped to through stones on a small house.  That house had a picture of President Saleh.  The owner went to the roof and started shooting to the air.  A number of policemen formed a wall to stop demonstrators, and the special cars started to fire tear gas and use hot water to disburse demonstrators.

After 10 minutes the street was clear.  The demonstrators run into side streets and backed up.  There were hundreds of shoes on the street!... Most of the demonstrators were teenagers wearing traditional Yemeni Thawb.  They started to come out of their hiding as police forces were standing ready to disperse them if they come back.  A number of people dropped, a few emergency cars took them to hospitals.  There was no deaths.

All policemen had only sticks and shields.  They did not carry fire arms.  When demonstrators started to through stones, the policemen reacted with throwing stones.

2. April 19, 2011 demonstration, Siteen/Zubeiry street:
A large number of people were coming from Siteen Street going south.  Police forces were standing at the intersection with Zubeiry Street.  The made a wall separating the demonstrators from tribesmen (supporters of Saleh) on the other side.  As demonstrators approached shouting "Go out" slogan tension mounted.

The police started to fire tear-gas and water at demonstrators.  The demonstrators started to back off.  After a few minutes some gun shots were coming from the side of the demonstrators.  The policemen, equipped with sticks only, ran away.  Some sent to the side streets.  The demonstrators followed them.  At that point, the tribesmen ran toward demonstrators....

In the side streets demonstrators were able to capture a policeman.  They beat him till he became unconscious.  They carried him and ran away.....

Fight continues between tribesmen and demonstrators for a while until all demonstrators left the area.

10 policemen were "taken" and "kidnapped" by the demonstrators.

Today, opposition parities are in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and government team is in UAE.  They are are looking for a solutions for the crisis!

This is a serious development.  Demonstrators kidnapped police forces and took them.  This is raising tension and the relation between the two will never be the same.  It is believed that some third group participated in the demonstrations and kidnapped the policemen.....

The coming days may witness an escalating conflict that could result in more casualties......  The conflict, and demonstrations could take a violent turn!.....

The Media War

The Media War

It has been more than 2 months since the youth movement started in Yemen.  Most people who are interested in Yemen can only rely on the media to learn about the situation here.  Most people, including the majority of Yemenis, have been overwhelmed by the media coverage of the events in Yemen.  They have formed their opinions and attitudes based on the information provided.  Some rely on international sources, and a few on local sources of information.  I would like here to challenge the media coverage of events in Yemen.  I would like to call everybody to look beyond the pieces of news given by the media.  If possible, I would like you to go out to the streets of Sana'a to learn more about what is happening.

The illusion of numbers:

Since the start of the demonstrations against the regime we have been hearing about the "millions" of Yemenis who are taking to the streets.  Recently, since the regime started to mobilize supporters, we have also been hearing about the other "millions" that are pro regime.  Lets pause for a moment to see what is behind the figures.

If we look at Al-Tagheer square (change), it is in the Ring road.  Currently the sit-in area extends over a length of 2200 meters- let it be 2500 given the branches in a few side streets (based on calculations on google earth).  We know that the Ring road is about 20 meters wide.  If we consider that a person will need a minimum of 1 square meter, the maximum number of demonstrators on Friday is 50,000 (if we ignore the curbs and tents)...  Tagheer is 50,000 people MAX

On the other hand, lets look at Al-Tahrir/Sabeen (the pro government).  The length of the demonstration site is about 5000 meters.  The width is 50 meters in Tahrir square(extending over 500 meters), and 65 meters in Sabeen square (extending over 900 meters).  The other streets are between 18 and 25 meters wide.  The estimate is 111,800 people in the whole area (based on a 1.5 square meters per person).... Tahreer is around 100,000 people MAX

In addition to the maximum capacity of the areas of demonstrations (pro and against government), lets look at the population.  Sana'a has a population of 2 million.  75% are women, children, and elderly, leaving 500,000 who go to the demonstrations.  Based on my own observations on Fridays, the number of worshipers has declined by a maximum of 30%.  If we assume that 800,000 people attend the Friday prayers in ordinary days and 50% are "youth" then 200,000 are still going to the mosques.  That is leaving 300,000 to participate in the demonstrations in Tagheer and Tahrir together!...

We did not account for the comers from outside Sana'a.  These people be all estimates cannot be more than tens of thousands (Sana'a has three major roads connecting it to the other parts of the country and roads simply cannot accommodate "millions of people" who come in less than 24 hours)...

Conclusion:

There are no millions participating in the demonstrations, the majority of Yemenis are not there.  and remember that 75% of Yemenis live in rural areas.....

The media war is continuing, raising tension between Yemenis.  The situation is very much volatile and could lead to civil war if it continues.  Yesterday I was near Al-Tagheer square area buying chickens.  The seller was arguing with some people.  He was telling them "ok.... go to Sabeen and get your 5000", one of these people was upset.  They were close to fighting.  I noticed the high level of tension in that area like no other place.  

This tension is noticed everywhere.  When you observe the tone of the language in facebook, for example, you would be surprised.  "hypocrites, infidels, stupid, " from one side, and "traitors, extremists...."  The situation is not different in many other places, especially in rural areas.

 There is a tendency for the media to "exaggerate" and show how "bad things are in Yemen"... The problem is how each side is using the media, and how people are receiving this.  We need to set back and think once more before we make conclusions about what is happening in Yemen.  People need to rethink their positions and believe that they can still live together.

Picture of Rabat street across the Ring road 30 minutes before the Friday prayers (April 15).....

Video in 45 street, Saleh Supporters... Zanga Zanga

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kq3D1MQc38g

Yemen, another Libya?

Yemen, another Libya?

After more than two months since the start of the youth movement the picture of the situation in Yemen is becoming more blurry.  It is not only the regime and the youth demanding its departure, it is much more.

Al-Islah, the most influential Islamic party officially declared a war on the regime.  Al-Islah through its religious wing declared "holy war" against President Saleh.  Al-Zandani, the party spiritual leader, declared this the dawn of the "Islamic Caliphate State".  In a speech in the Tagheer Square in Sana'a on March 1, he asked supporters to continue their "Jihad" until the regime leaves (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nu9mZX3LdJU).  

Two weeks after the speech of Al-Zandani more than 50 demonstrators were killed by gunmen while they were trying to demolish a wall established to prevent demonstrators from expanding their sit-in area.  Following that Friday Ali Mohsen (one of the main figures of Saleh's regime- and a commander of one of the main divisions of the Yemeni Army) decided to "support the youth revolution" and send his troops to protect the demonstrators.

Ali Mohsen has been known for his support for Al-Islah Party for a long time.  He provided them with land and funds to establish Al-Eman University among other sorts of support he has given the group.  The defection of Ali Mohsen (half-brother of Saleh) is seen as a military coup by the Islamic party.

After the defection of Ali Mohsen tensions in Yemen rose dramatically.  Mohsen's main camp is in the middle of Sana'a City.  Military confrontation was very close with the Republican Guards under Ahemd, the sun of President Saleh.

Mohsen is not only a military commander.  He is also one of the main political leaders.  He had been the regime's main contact with the tribes, and he had tremendous influence in the appointment of many governments and officials.

A few days after the defection of Mohsen, the two sides found that a military confrontation was too costly.  Since then Saleh's regime decided it is time to use the same weapon used by the opposition, the "street".  Saleh was able to gather thousands of people in three consecutive Fridays.  This move gave Saleh another reason to resist.

Apart from the Fridays show off of the opposition and the regime, there is another war.  Saleh succeeded in convincing his tribesmen to go for a mediation effort with Mohsen.  Apparently Mohsen decided to stop such efforts when his men fired on the mediation team killing two and injuring others.  By tribal customs this act is considered an offense on the tribe.  The tribes of Sanhan, among others, declared war on Mohsen.

In a separate incident, Mohsen's soldiers fired on a number of cars passing near his military camp while raising the pictures of President Saleh on Friday 8, 2011 killing two tribesmen.

In other parts of the country the situation is deteriorating rapidly.  After Abyan and Shabwah (Al Qaeda), government forces surrendered to Hothi groups in Sadah, Al-Jawf.  Al-Islah groups attacked Marib governorate which is now under their control.

The situation in Yemen is very similar to that of Libya.  Although the main cities are still under government control, the mounting tension and inability of the regime, as well as the opposition to act could lead to a breakthrough of a civil war.  Each side is using its last cards.