Confused!

When the youth movement started in early February 2011 most Yemenis were full of hope.  The hope for a change that will give them a chance to make a better life.  A chance to make justice prevail.  A chance to fight corruption and let those with better qualifications contribute to the future of the country.  For all of these hope thousands of people joined the movement that was gaining momentum day by day.

Later, a different group of people joined the movement.  A group that wanted to take advantage of the movement to gain political power.  This group include the opposition parties included in the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP)- the Islamic Islah Party, the Yemen Social Party, and a few smaller parties.  It also included some groups that are not recognized as political parties, but had been fighting against the government, namely the Houthis and Al-Qaeda.  

The third group that joined the protests were a number of the hard liners of Saleh's regime.  These who have been taking advantage of the regime for decades but felt it is time to jump the ship before it sinks.

The opposition parties do not have the support of the public and they do not have agendas for the future of the country.  Although they formed a coalition against Saleh's regime, they have more differences than agreements.  Over the past period they demonstrated to Yemenis that they will not be able to role a country with so much diversity.  Each one has a single focus: Islah want's to have an "Islamic Caliph" state, Yemen Social Party wants to have a Socialist regime.  These two main players are seen as fundamental movements that will not be able to accommodate others. 

The "poor" youth have continued their movement, which is now 4 months old.  They were supported financially by different groups including the JMP, but have lost both their values and goals.  Although their main objective continues to be "to demolish Saleh's regime", they have lost the support of the public that see no value in a "revolution" that is not bringing justice for all.

One can can immediately spot the confusion among the people in Tagheer Square (university).  The following picture shows Sadam Hussien, Al-Hamdi (a former President of Yemen who came after a coup against the only civilian president), and Shamlan (a socialist, and candidate for president who ran against President Saleh in 2006)..... The picture speaks for itself.... 

The picture  is an example of the confusion among the youth who are using symbols of dictatorship for a people-revolution......

Freedom of Speech

For Yemenis freedom of speech is not necessarily one of the priorities.  It is not the government that keeps them from expressing themselves freely, but also traditions, values, the tribe, the community, among other things.  In this part of the world a word is more than just a combination of few letters.  

Before 1990 Yemenis  were subject to controlled media.  There were almost no private media and even imported media was subject to strict censorship.  Since then things have very much changes.  There are hundreds of local newspapers and publication most of which are private.  The change in 1990 was like a shock to the conservative society.

Initially those who were working for the public media established their own newspapers, but later many people entered this "market".  Many of the new newspapers are managed by people who want to make money.  They do not have any journalism background.  They established many "yellow" journals.

On the other hand political parties established their own newspapers and media tools.  Their objective is to promote their ideas among the public.

In the early 1990 most of the media were somehow guarded by unwritten controls, but very soon these controls disappeared in favor of political and business interests.  This has affected the culture of people that gives high value for "the word"... 

The media was not able to play a positive role in educating people and helping raise awareness, but was able to "make stories" rather than "report stories".  Most of the stories about corruption, for example, were not taken seriously by the public and authorities.  There is no doubt that the media played a major role in the current crisis in Yemen.

The Yemeni government decided earlier to turn a deaf-ear towards what is on the media.  With few exceptions, journalists are free to write whatever they want.

In the current crisis the media is playing a big role.  There is a war between pro-regime media and opposition media.  The opposition media is trying to "get the support of the public to the change movement", on the other hand, the pro-regime media is trying to get the trust of the public.

The freedom of speech has changed how people think in Yemen.  It has probably changed the value of  a "word" in the mind of Yemenis, but not for all of us!

In an unprecedented indecent that happened yesterday, Al-Omaisi, a local poet from Al-Qafr (Ibb) who is famous for praising President Saleh, was kidnapped in Taiz street in Sana'a.  His tongue was cut off.  The efforts to rescue him failed.....

This dogmatic act cannot be left without punishment.....

The Yemeni Game

Most observers, including Yemenis, expected a frightening scenario for Yemen.  They expected civil war at the beginning of the crisis that is now 13 weeks old.  Most Yemenis prepared themselves for the worst during the first week of the crisis.  They stacked food items, reduced their movement outside their homes, and also prepared their guns among other measures they took to protect themselves!

In first few weeks many people decided to keep their children home, while others closed their businesses or reduced the operating hours.  Foreign companies sent their expats outside the country and some gave their employees an open leave.  Many Yemeni businesses also started to lay off some of their employees.

Now, after 13 weeks things are not so bad.  Food items and other basic needs are still readily available.  There are some difficulties in securing home-gas and more blackouts than usual, but the situation is still bearable.

Children are going to school normally.  Many people are going back to their normal routine and businesses are operating until late hours at night.  The streets are almost as crowded as in early February.  The government's strategy to reduce the presence of security forces in the city did not affect the security situation in the city.  

The seceding of Ali-Mohsen and his forces raised more fears about the situation.  It has, undoubtedly, made it more difficult to resolve the crisis, but since then ( March 21) the experience has shown that all parties are very careful about the use of force.

The police forces are still guarding Zubeiry street, having some special equipment for the purpose of dispersing demonstrators.  On the other side of the street, particularly in Sixty-Meter road you sometime notice  soldiers that belong to Ali Mohsen.  There was only a couple of incidents of clashes between these forces and police forces right after Mohasen announcement.

The past ten days were very peaceful in Sana'a.  There were no demonstrations and the tension has gone down tremendously.

The initiative design by the Gulf countries to resolve the crisis did not go through after some dispute about the formalities.  This is on the surface, but in fact none of the two sides was ready to implement it.

Ironically, the "youth movement" and the demands for change were very much popular at the begging of the crisis.  President Saleh has lost a lot of support even from his own party.  The "change movement" was very popular among the majority of people.  The pro-regime people were very much "scared" to announce their position.  The ruling party (PGC) had lost the ability to act.  Saleh was put in the corner and could only give concessions, one after another.

The concessions given by Saleh were "not good enough" for the opposition and change movement to accept.  They were rejected immediately.  Both the opposition and the youth movement were firm, "no negotiations with President Saleh and his regime".

Four weeks ago Saleh decided to call his supporters to go to the streets.  One Friday, after another, an increasing number of Yemenis are demonstrating in support for Saleh.  At the same time, the change movement have lost a lot of its momentum.  A number of factors contributed to that:
1. The filthy language used by Saleh opponents in the media and public has backfired.  Many Yemenis this against their cultural values.  At the same time, the official media of Saleh was able to regain some trust from the public.
2. The seceding of Mohsen, among other former regime officials has weakened the change movement that lost sympathy from the public.
3. A number of opposition leaders failed to present an "alternative" to the public.  In their media speeches they    did not give a "plan for the future".  Al-Biedh, Basindwah, Qahtan, Zaid, and Hamid Al-Ahmar all raised more fears about the future of the country and the possibility of seceding of the south.
4. Some of the opposition parties started to use its members to intimidate the public.  They used speakers of the mosques, they tried to force people into strikes, and harassed, and in some cases physically attacked, those who do not agree with them.
5. The "no negotiation" attitude of the opposition and youth movement was increasingly seen by the public, who would like to see an end to this crisis, as an acceptable attitude.

The Yemeni streets are split these days.  Saleh supporters are now out in the public, and those against him have lost much of the sympathy and support.  Opposition parties were not able to take advantage of the public support that reached its peak maybe in week 4 of the crisis.  The youth seem to have no strategy or plan.

The opposition parties are in difficult situation.  If they eventually accept a political settlement that will ensure fair elections, they do not have the required support to rule, and if they refuse they will eventually lose more supporters.  An alternative is to use the military!

The average Yemeni citizen is the one who stands to lose his/her job.  For how long can these average Yemenis stand?


  

Demonstrations In Yemen

Given the current crisis in Yemen and the attention given by the media to events in Yemen, I find many amazing things are are not reflected in the media.  The media is mainly concerned about the "plot" and not many of the important things that impact the daily life of Yemenis.....

At the beginning of this crisis there had been a lot of fears that a civil war would immediately breakout.  Yemenis have weapons in their position including fire arms, and even before the current crisis, there were a lot of conflicts in which fire arms were used.  Disputes about land is one of the most important causes for conflicts.  In addition a number of groups use arms to pressure the government either to get money or other privileges.

In the first few weeks people were gathering weapons, and getting ready to "fight" and protect their properties against the "tribes" who will come to rob Sana'a.  President Saleh's meetings with the tribes around Sana'a were mostly interpreted as a preparation for the intended raid on Sana'a.

It became clear that the government was aware of the fact that any armed conflict will actually backfire.  The government decided to loosen its grip.  At the same time anti-government movement, including the youth, the opposition parties, and the defector Ali Mohsen and his forces followed a similar strategy.

Although there have been some exceptions, the demonstrations are generally peaceful. Demonstrators are usually dispersed using the common tools like tear gas and water.  Police forces are only equipped with sticks and shields, no fire arms.

I  have witnessed a number of demonstrations in the recent days in Sana'a.  The new "pro Saleh demonstrations" are usually running smoothly throughout the city.  A growing number is participating in these demonstrations as the crisis continues.  Many people stand to watch and picture these demonstrations.
 (pro Saled demonstration, April 19, 2011)

The anti regime demonstrations are different.  They usually originate from the sit-in square near Sana'a University.  Although there have been only a few demonstrations over the past 2 months, the intensity of demonstrations increased since negotiations started between government and the opposition parties.

Here are some observations related to anti-regime demonstrations:
1. Sunday April 17, 2011: I came across a demonstration that was able, for the first time to cross Zubiery Street.  A few thousand people (2000-3000) were going into Al-Jeria Street.  They were shouting slogans against President Saleh and the regime.  While passing they would paint slogans on the walls.  A number of residents were gathering to watch them.  They went down the street and stopped to through stones on a small house.  That house had a picture of President Saleh.  The owner went to the roof and started shooting to the air.  A number of policemen formed a wall to stop demonstrators, and the special cars started to fire tear gas and use hot water to disburse demonstrators.

After 10 minutes the street was clear.  The demonstrators run into side streets and backed up.  There were hundreds of shoes on the street!... Most of the demonstrators were teenagers wearing traditional Yemeni Thawb.  They started to come out of their hiding as police forces were standing ready to disperse them if they come back.  A number of people dropped, a few emergency cars took them to hospitals.  There was no deaths.

All policemen had only sticks and shields.  They did not carry fire arms.  When demonstrators started to through stones, the policemen reacted with throwing stones.

2. April 19, 2011 demonstration, Siteen/Zubeiry street:
A large number of people were coming from Siteen Street going south.  Police forces were standing at the intersection with Zubeiry Street.  The made a wall separating the demonstrators from tribesmen (supporters of Saleh) on the other side.  As demonstrators approached shouting "Go out" slogan tension mounted.

The police started to fire tear-gas and water at demonstrators.  The demonstrators started to back off.  After a few minutes some gun shots were coming from the side of the demonstrators.  The policemen, equipped with sticks only, ran away.  Some sent to the side streets.  The demonstrators followed them.  At that point, the tribesmen ran toward demonstrators....

In the side streets demonstrators were able to capture a policeman.  They beat him till he became unconscious.  They carried him and ran away.....

Fight continues between tribesmen and demonstrators for a while until all demonstrators left the area.

10 policemen were "taken" and "kidnapped" by the demonstrators.

Today, opposition parities are in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and government team is in UAE.  They are are looking for a solutions for the crisis!

This is a serious development.  Demonstrators kidnapped police forces and took them.  This is raising tension and the relation between the two will never be the same.  It is believed that some third group participated in the demonstrations and kidnapped the policemen.....

The coming days may witness an escalating conflict that could result in more casualties......  The conflict, and demonstrations could take a violent turn!.....

The Media War

The Media War

It has been more than 2 months since the youth movement started in Yemen.  Most people who are interested in Yemen can only rely on the media to learn about the situation here.  Most people, including the majority of Yemenis, have been overwhelmed by the media coverage of the events in Yemen.  They have formed their opinions and attitudes based on the information provided.  Some rely on international sources, and a few on local sources of information.  I would like here to challenge the media coverage of events in Yemen.  I would like to call everybody to look beyond the pieces of news given by the media.  If possible, I would like you to go out to the streets of Sana'a to learn more about what is happening.

The illusion of numbers:

Since the start of the demonstrations against the regime we have been hearing about the "millions" of Yemenis who are taking to the streets.  Recently, since the regime started to mobilize supporters, we have also been hearing about the other "millions" that are pro regime.  Lets pause for a moment to see what is behind the figures.

If we look at Al-Tagheer square (change), it is in the Ring road.  Currently the sit-in area extends over a length of 2200 meters- let it be 2500 given the branches in a few side streets (based on calculations on google earth).  We know that the Ring road is about 20 meters wide.  If we consider that a person will need a minimum of 1 square meter, the maximum number of demonstrators on Friday is 50,000 (if we ignore the curbs and tents)...  Tagheer is 50,000 people MAX

On the other hand, lets look at Al-Tahrir/Sabeen (the pro government).  The length of the demonstration site is about 5000 meters.  The width is 50 meters in Tahrir square(extending over 500 meters), and 65 meters in Sabeen square (extending over 900 meters).  The other streets are between 18 and 25 meters wide.  The estimate is 111,800 people in the whole area (based on a 1.5 square meters per person).... Tahreer is around 100,000 people MAX

In addition to the maximum capacity of the areas of demonstrations (pro and against government), lets look at the population.  Sana'a has a population of 2 million.  75% are women, children, and elderly, leaving 500,000 who go to the demonstrations.  Based on my own observations on Fridays, the number of worshipers has declined by a maximum of 30%.  If we assume that 800,000 people attend the Friday prayers in ordinary days and 50% are "youth" then 200,000 are still going to the mosques.  That is leaving 300,000 to participate in the demonstrations in Tagheer and Tahrir together!...

We did not account for the comers from outside Sana'a.  These people be all estimates cannot be more than tens of thousands (Sana'a has three major roads connecting it to the other parts of the country and roads simply cannot accommodate "millions of people" who come in less than 24 hours)...

Conclusion:

There are no millions participating in the demonstrations, the majority of Yemenis are not there.  and remember that 75% of Yemenis live in rural areas.....

The media war is continuing, raising tension between Yemenis.  The situation is very much volatile and could lead to civil war if it continues.  Yesterday I was near Al-Tagheer square area buying chickens.  The seller was arguing with some people.  He was telling them "ok.... go to Sabeen and get your 5000", one of these people was upset.  They were close to fighting.  I noticed the high level of tension in that area like no other place.  

This tension is noticed everywhere.  When you observe the tone of the language in facebook, for example, you would be surprised.  "hypocrites, infidels, stupid, " from one side, and "traitors, extremists...."  The situation is not different in many other places, especially in rural areas.

 There is a tendency for the media to "exaggerate" and show how "bad things are in Yemen"... The problem is how each side is using the media, and how people are receiving this.  We need to set back and think once more before we make conclusions about what is happening in Yemen.  People need to rethink their positions and believe that they can still live together.

Picture of Rabat street across the Ring road 30 minutes before the Friday prayers (April 15).....

Video in 45 street, Saleh Supporters... Zanga Zanga

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kq3D1MQc38g

Yemen, another Libya?

Yemen, another Libya?

After more than two months since the start of the youth movement the picture of the situation in Yemen is becoming more blurry.  It is not only the regime and the youth demanding its departure, it is much more.

Al-Islah, the most influential Islamic party officially declared a war on the regime.  Al-Islah through its religious wing declared "holy war" against President Saleh.  Al-Zandani, the party spiritual leader, declared this the dawn of the "Islamic Caliphate State".  In a speech in the Tagheer Square in Sana'a on March 1, he asked supporters to continue their "Jihad" until the regime leaves (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nu9mZX3LdJU).  

Two weeks after the speech of Al-Zandani more than 50 demonstrators were killed by gunmen while they were trying to demolish a wall established to prevent demonstrators from expanding their sit-in area.  Following that Friday Ali Mohsen (one of the main figures of Saleh's regime- and a commander of one of the main divisions of the Yemeni Army) decided to "support the youth revolution" and send his troops to protect the demonstrators.

Ali Mohsen has been known for his support for Al-Islah Party for a long time.  He provided them with land and funds to establish Al-Eman University among other sorts of support he has given the group.  The defection of Ali Mohsen (half-brother of Saleh) is seen as a military coup by the Islamic party.

After the defection of Ali Mohsen tensions in Yemen rose dramatically.  Mohsen's main camp is in the middle of Sana'a City.  Military confrontation was very close with the Republican Guards under Ahemd, the sun of President Saleh.

Mohsen is not only a military commander.  He is also one of the main political leaders.  He had been the regime's main contact with the tribes, and he had tremendous influence in the appointment of many governments and officials.

A few days after the defection of Mohsen, the two sides found that a military confrontation was too costly.  Since then Saleh's regime decided it is time to use the same weapon used by the opposition, the "street".  Saleh was able to gather thousands of people in three consecutive Fridays.  This move gave Saleh another reason to resist.

Apart from the Fridays show off of the opposition and the regime, there is another war.  Saleh succeeded in convincing his tribesmen to go for a mediation effort with Mohsen.  Apparently Mohsen decided to stop such efforts when his men fired on the mediation team killing two and injuring others.  By tribal customs this act is considered an offense on the tribe.  The tribes of Sanhan, among others, declared war on Mohsen.

In a separate incident, Mohsen's soldiers fired on a number of cars passing near his military camp while raising the pictures of President Saleh on Friday 8, 2011 killing two tribesmen.

In other parts of the country the situation is deteriorating rapidly.  After Abyan and Shabwah (Al Qaeda), government forces surrendered to Hothi groups in Sadah, Al-Jawf.  Al-Islah groups attacked Marib governorate which is now under their control.

The situation in Yemen is very similar to that of Libya.  Although the main cities are still under government control, the mounting tension and inability of the regime, as well as the opposition to act could lead to a breakthrough of a civil war.  Each side is using its last cards. 

  

Time to Think

It has been about two months since the start of the uprising in Yemen.  The revolution that was inspired by Tunisia and Egypt is quite different.  The youth started their movement with the same demands of the Tunisian and Egyptian youth, to overthrew the regime.  The demands seems legitimate given the failure of the regime to solve the problems of the country, and to meet the dreams of the young generation.

After this long period one needs to ask why has the youth movement failed to overthrew the regime in Yemen?.  There are of course a number of reasons:

1. The youth movement, although popular, has lost its popularity a few weeks after it started.  A number of factors contributed to this.
-First the youth movement was taken over (for the most part) by the (unpopular) opposition parties.
-Second, and after this long time, the movement has not been able to provide a convincing alternative to the regime with a clear plan and strategy (this is particularly important given the diverse composition of the oppositions powers, from the far right to the left).
-Third, the principals and values of the revolution were violated when unpopular (corrupt) figures joined the uprising with a "welcome" from the youth.
2. The youth movement continue to be a minority among the population of Yemen which is mainly rural.  With the exception of tribesmen who were brought to Sana'a by Islah Party and its allies, the rural people have not contributed to the revolution.
3.  Although the regime was hardly hit by the decision of Ali Mohsen, commander of one of the main Army units, to support the revolution, it also made people fear the possible break of a war within the Army.
4. The regime has learned from the experience of Tunisia and Egypt.  The regime demonstrations, keeping low profile, and avoiding conflict and use of force.
5. President Saleh has been trying to find a "way out" through some initiatives giving concessions and expressing his willingness to step down.  This attitude has helped him to keep supporters around him (members of the regime, these fearing the Unknown,  and these observing the revolution deviating from its own objectives).

People are trying to keep up with the situation.  Although many have already lost their jobs and others are badly affected by the current crisis, many others are still trying.

The regime is extending hands for negotiations, but the revolution powers are rejecting.  The past couple of Fridays were showdowns between the supporters of the regime and those against it.  It is becoming more clear that both sides are exhausting their effect limits.  No one is able to go further from here.

Of course the opposition thinks they still have ways to "osculate"  the situation, but the price might be too high. In order to get more gains the opposition needs to risk the lives of many Yemenis.  Without direct confrontation the opposition will not be able to get more support from the masses.

The regime, on the other hand, is trying to buy time.  People in many areas in the country are starting to feel the effects of this crisis.  They are starting to question the way out of it.

Without concessions and "good-will" from the political powers the situation in the country could become more complicated to solve.  The streets in Yemen are now split.  Even within a single household you find people against and pro the regime.  If this continues it could lead to conflict that could turn into a civil war.

People need to start realizing that Yemen is a country for all and that no one can claim it for him/herself.  This is time to think about a way out, not how to get more gains!

The following is a call that could be shared...
http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/yemen/